In his second term, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has started visiting neighbouring countries in the belief that some building blocks are in place to facilitate concrete outcomes.
Though Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari during his visit on Sunday last suggested that Dr. Singh visit Islamabad before the end of the year, India would like to wait for the forthcoming calendar of bilateral dialogue on contentious issues to play out before taking a call.
The timing of his visit is, therefore, open and if the trajectory of bilateral ties continues with the uptrend with no aggravations in between, Dr. Singh might undertake a trip during the remaining 18 months of the current Pakistan's government's tenure but it may not necessarily be before the end of this calendar year.
Meetings to discuss Sir Creek and Siachen are being lined up in addition to talks between the Commerce and the Home/Interior Ministries, but, as the Prime Minister had said, public opinion here would judge India-Pak relations against the touchstone of action against all perpetrators of the Mumbai attacks.
This has not happened yet though Mr. Zardari's interaction with the Prime Minister conveyed the impression that the current dispensation in Islamabad does realise that the ease with which strategist of Mumbai attacks Hafeez Saeed has been moving around makes it difficult for the Indian public to fully accept Islamabad's assertion that it is moving against terrorists of all hues, particularly those seeking to target India.
On the other hand, both sides are planning to revisit the formulation on Sir Creek worked out before the Mumbai attacks and if they get into further discussions with an open mind, this is one issue that is doable. On Siachen, positions held by both sides are rigid and a resolution would have to wait for a further improvement in ties. Trade is one area that has seen the maximum opening following a shift in Pakistan's position. Till some time ago. Islamabad was unwilling to discuss meaningful trade liberalisations till there was movement on other concerns especially Kashmir. That apparently is no longer Pakistan's position.
However, a visit to Myanmar, which has largely addressed security-related concerns primarily cross- border sanctuaries for Naga and Assam militants, is firmly on the cards. The visit will be taking place after democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy won 43 of the 45 seats for which elections were held. But the timing would be coincidental because the Prime Minister had planned to visit Myanmar for a multi-nation conference and pencilled in a bilateral on the sidelines. However, scheduling issues meant that not too many heads of government would have turned up and Dr. Singh also put his visit on the back burner.
Ms. Suu Kyi's victory will certainly bring an added dimension to the visit that the earlier, pre-poll trip would not have brought. And though commentaries have alleged India backed off after initially supporting the pro-democracy leader in the mid-1990s, recent interactions have managed to convey India's message that its overriding strategic compulsions compelled it to support the military regime of Senior General Than Shwe who at one time was a close colleague of Suu Kyi's father and played a leading part during the struggle for consolidation of the country's borders after independence.
Despite New Delhi's lukewarm attitude to Ms. Suu Kyi's troubles with the military regime and the fact that Yangon/Naypidaw's association with the ASEAN is the strongest, the long years of association and interaction makes the people of Myanmar feel extra comfortable with India and Indians.
And though the commentaries from pro-democracy Myanmar activists and their sympathisers elsewhere have been critical of India's association with the military regime as compared to the West which had imposed sanctions and trading restrictions, it is also a fact that during the early years of Ms. Suu Kyi's travails, the U.K., France and the U.S. did not stop their operations in the oil and gas sector, because their national interests dictated that they remained engaged, just like India did during the past decade.
