The electoral terrain in northern Kerala has its marked features that can help one identify distinct political attitudes and trends in many constituencies, and factors that make outcomes difficult to predict. The presence of new ingredients this time makes the elections here more unpredictable.
The identifiable features include the traditionally invincible citadels of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) in the region, and the presence of a sizable population of Muslim voters. The new factors that may have an impact this time is the Bharatiya Janata Party’s spirited presence in the fray with the support of the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), the new party formed by the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam.
Keen contest
Among the keenly watched constituencies are Kasaragod and Manjeswaram seats where the BJP pins its hopes in triangular contests, though it fears consolidation of anti-BJP voters to thwart those hopes. The high-profile campaign of the BJP in Kasaragod and Manjeswaram has turned the contest into a close race. The candidacy of Congress’s K. Sudhakaran in Uduma in Kasaragod has also instilled a sense of unpredictability there, though the Left Democratic Front (LDF) hopes that it will retain Uduma as also Thrikkarippur and Kanhangad, viewed as LDF strongholds.
It is the presence of Adivasi leader C.K. Janu as BJP-led National Democratic Alliance candidate in Wayand district’s Sulthan Bathery that has drawn wide attention. Both the LDF and the United Democratic Front (UDF) fear that Ms. Janu may secure votes from their respective kitties. It is one of the three Assembly seats in Wayanad and all three went to the UDF in 2011. M.V. Shreyams Kumar of the Janata Dal (U) and Minister P.K. Jayalakshmi are seeking re-election in Kalpetta and Mananthavady respectively, where the UDF has traditionally enjoyed clear edge.
Kannur, Payyannur, Taliparamba, Kalliassery, Dharmadam, Mattannur, and Thalassery are CPI(M) bastions, though Congress candidate A.P. Abdullakutty is a stiff resistance to the CPI(M). The candidacy of CPI(M) Polit Bureau member Pinarayi Vijayan in Dharmadam has instilled excitement in party cadres in the district. If these six seats remain invincible, the LDF can hope to retain the 2011 tally.
Azhikode and Koothuparamba are the two constituencies witnessing fierce battle. Agricultural Minister K.P. Mohanan of the JD(U) and K.K. Shylaja of CPI(M) are in no-holds-barred battle in Koothuparamba. The Congress is also involved in a tough race in Kannur, a traditional UDF seat. The Congress hopes to retain it as well as Irikkur and Peravur, where Minister K.C. Joseph and Sunny Joseph are seeking re-election.
UDF hope
The UDF hopes to recover from the humiliating defeat of the Congress in the two previous Assembly elections in Kozhikode. In 2011, the LDF won 10 of the 13 seats and the remaining three were won by the IUML. The UDF’s hopes are pegged on the electoral outcome in the 2014 Lok Sabha election when the UDF got majority in 10 Assembly segments.
Vadakara, Nadapuram, Kuttiyadi, Koyilandy, Perambra, Balussery, Elathur, Kunnamangalam, Kozhikode North, and Beypore are the seats which went to the LDF in 2011. The situation in Vadakara is expected to be different this time as K.K. Rema, widow of slain Revolutionary Marxist Party leader T.P. Chandrashekharan, is in the fray. The strong presence of the BJP has become a factor to reckon with in constituencies such as Kozhikode North, Kunnamangalam and Balussery.
In the Thiruvambady seat, which went to IUML in 2011, the party candidate is facing fierce battle.
The LDF has fielded an IUML rebel as Independent against the IUML candidate. In Kozhikode South, Minister M.K. Muneer is seeking re-election as IUML candidate.
IUML fort
Malappuram is the main catchment area of the UDF in the northern parts of the State. Politically, the district remains the major source of the IUML’s strength. Of the 16 constituencies there, the UDF won 14 in 2011, 12 of which were pocketed by the IUML. The LDF, however, initiated some new strategies there to capture some of them from the UDF.
The LDF this time has fielded Independent candidates against the IUML candidates. Tanur, Mankada and Perinthalmanna are witnessing tough electoral battles. In Nilambur also the Congress candidate is facing a tough fight from an LDF-backed Independent.
Another factor noticed is the vote share that new parties such as the Social Democratic Party of India and the Welfare Party of India will manage to garner in the coming election.
