Even as the political class is keeping its fingers crossed over the outcome of the 16th Lok Sabha elections in Kerala, the results of which are expected on Friday, one of the keenly watched results would be those from the three Central Travancore segments of Kottayam, Idukki and Pathanamthitta which are expected impact the intraparty and interparty equations in both the ruling United Democratic Front (UDF) and the Opposition Left Democratic Front (LDF).
The UDF would be the most susceptible to the election outcomes as the relations between the Congress and the Kerala Congress (M) have already run into rough weather.
As such, even if all the UDF candidates in the three segments win, a fall in vote percentage for the UDF candidate in any of these constituencies could lead to political tussle within the UDF. While a good performance by the LDF in the State may open new avenues of options for the KC(M), a creditable performance by the UDF would leave the party with little choices, but continue its disgruntled partnership with the ruling front.
Meanwhile, a UDF win in Idukki could put both the LDF and the UDF in a political mess. While the UDF leadership would have to give the logic for succumbing to the pressure tactics of the Catholic hierarchy and removing P.T. Thomas, the LDF would be forced answer a host of questions, including accepting a candidate proposed by their arch rivals as their own.
If the victory goes the LDF way, it would trigger a major interparty war in the UDF between the Congress and the KC(M). The situation in Pathanamthitta is no different. If the UDF wins, it would have its reverberations within the LDF particularly in CPI(M) for accepting the former Congress leader Peelipose Thomas as their own candidate.
However, in case of a victory, if the victory margin is less for the UDF candidate Anto Antony, the Government chief whip may turn the whipping boy for the Congress leadership. In other words, in what ever way the results turn in these three parliament segments, it is going to have its aftershocks in both the fronts for a long time to come.