IMD says conditions favourable for its onset over Kerala
The Southwest Monsoon was virtually on Kerala’s doorstep, its gateway to the Indian subcontinent, on Thursday, sailing in on weak tailwinds.
The India Meteorological Department, in its bulletin for Thursday, said the conditions were favourable for the onset of the monsoon “over Kerala and its advance into more parts of south Arabian Sea, the Maldives-Comorin area and some parts of Tamil Nadu and some more parts of Bay of Bengal” by Friday.
As on Thursday, the northern limit of the flow of the monsoon was passing over a point some 300 km to the south of the tip of the peninsula, cutting across Sri Lanka and curving in the northeast direction across the Bay of Bengal. The Andaman territory had come under the spell of the monsoon as early as May 18. The cross-equatorial southwest flow of rain-heavy winds had been slower than usual in spreading northwards this time.
The IMD charts, which show the possible turn in the proceedings for a period of seven days, predicted the possibility of the first major weather system of the season evolving over southeast Arabian Sea within four days.
Beginning as a cyclonic circulation over the Kerala-Lakshadweep area by June 8, it may develop into a low-pressure system over southeast Arabian Sea and intensify over the next days and move north. This system may work as a pulley lifting the northern limit of the monsoon up north. Much of the heavy rainfall associated with this system is forecast to happen in the seas off the west coast, but the entire west coast may get rain.
A feeble offshore trough continued to persist from the Karnataka to Kerala coasts at mean sea level on Thursday and the IMD said it would continue to persist during the next two days, promising widespread rainfall along the Kerala-Karnataka coast.