he question of a possible swing in the Muslim votes that can influence the electoral outcomes has been identified as one of the crucial factors to be figured out in the crucible of the Assembly election, although opinions differ as to the likelihood or otherwise of such a swing.
The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) that traditionally represents the political psyche of the Muslim community, mostly concentrated in the northern parts of the State, is as much pitted against the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in its strongholds as it is against new entrants that seek to claim stakes in the community’s political landscape.
Nascent parties such as the Welfare Party of India (WPI), Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) may not be major forces to reckon with, but they can play spoilsports for the IUML.
The LDF is expecting a swing in the Muslim vote in the Assembly polls, a belief bolstered by some electoral gains it managed to secure in the local body election in Malappuram. The differences between the IUML and the Congress during the local body election notwithstanding, the LDF’s assessment is that it could cash in the community’s apprehensions about the Sangh Parivar by holding beef festivals and highlighting the Dadri lynching. The LDF’s foray into several local bodies in Malappuram is what drives the LDF to hope for a swing in its favour.
“The IUML anticipates no deviation in the traditional Muslim votes in the State,” said K.P.A. Majeed, IUML State general secretary. As local body elections are not purely political, the votes polled by ‘new generation parties’ [SDPI, WPI and PDP] can sometimes become decisive in civic bodies, he said. The Muslim psyche can never favour the LDF, he noted.
The LDF’s hope of a swing factor likely to play a role in the electoral outcome is supported by the community change of political preference over the years.
In the 2006 elections, the IUML faced a setback as its tally of MLAs declined to just seven from 16 seats in 2001.
That pro-LDF swing was reverted in 2011 when the IUML won 20 seats, including 12 of the 16 seats in Malappuram.
In the past, the Kanthapuram faction of the Orthodox Sunnis in the State overtly supported the LDF, while the rival EK Sunni faction stood with the IUML. This time, the Kanthapuram faction has not taken a stand against the IUML. It just publicly opposed only one UDF candidate: the IUML’s candidate in Mannarkad constituency.
The IUML’s monopoly over the Muslim community that represents nearly 26 per cent of the population may remain intact, but it is definitely facing challenge from the new parties.
Parties such as the WPI, SDPI and the PDP may not be major forces to reckon with, but they can play spoilsports for IUML.
