The Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] remains ahead of the Congress in vote share in the State despite the defeat of the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in the Assembly elections, an analysis of election data shows.
The CPI(M) secured 28.2 per cent of the valid votes polled in this year's elections, though its vote share dipped by 2.3 percentage points from the figure in the 2006 Assembly elections. The Congress secured 26.7 per cent of the votes against 24.1 per cent in 2006.
The CPI(M) contested for 84 seats this time, while the Congress had candidates only in 82 constituencies. However, even a projection of the Congress party's vote share for 84 seats would not bring it on a par with the CPI (M).
The Congress had fielded candidates only in 77 constituencies last time, while the Democratic Indira Congress (Karunakaran) [DIC(K)] contested for 18 seats. The DIC(K) has since merged with the Congress, and their combined vote share in 2006 was 28.5 per cent.
Besides the Congress, the real gainers in this election in terms of vote share are the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Kerala Congress(M). The BJP's vote share went up by about 1.3 percentage points (from 4.75 per cent in 2006 to 6.03 per cent in 2011). The party's vote share, however, is lower than what it got in the Lok Sabha elections in 2009 (6.3 per cent) and 2004 (10.4 per cent).
The Kerala Congress(M) made it to 4.9 per cent, contesting for 15 seats. This was more than what it could have expected from the merger of Kerala Congress(J) with it. Contesting for 11 and 6 seats from opposite camps in 2006, the Kerala Congress(M) and the Kerala Congress(J) had secured only a vote share of 3.26 per cent and 1.75 per cent, respectively. Thus, it is almost a gain of one percentage point this time over the combined vote share of 2006 despite a reduction in the number of contested seats by one.
The Muslim League has also increased its vote share by one percentage point — from 7.3 per cent to 8.3 per cent. However, it is only in proportion to the increase in number of seats it contested; from 21 seats in 2006 to 24 seats this time.
The Communist Party of India has increased its vote share from 8.1 per cent in 2006 to 8.7 per cent. However, the increase is not even in proportion to the increase in number of seats it contested for. While it contested for 24 seats in 2006, this time, the party had candidates in 27 constituencies.
