The byelection in the Chengannur Assembly constituency is in for a photo finish.
The byelection, necessitated following the death of Communist Party of India (Marxist) MLA K.K. Ramachandran Nair, is seen as crucial tests for the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) government, Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
A win or defeat for the CPI(M) candidate in the May 28 election will not disturb the LDF's majority in the Assembly, but the outcome is significant for the ruling front as it is seen as an assessment of the two-year-old State government. On the other side, the Congress is hoping to wrest the seat it had lost in 2016 after decades of dominance. Although both the LDF and the UDF have dubbed the bypoll a direct contest between them, the BJP's quantum leap to 42,682 votes in the 2016 Assembly poll worries the two fronts and makes it a triangular fight.
CPI(M) candidate Saji Cherian is seeking continuity and promises all-round development. Congress candidate D. Vijayakumar is banking on the anti-incumbency factor and the party believes his proximity to a large section of voters will stand him in good stead.
The decision of the Kerala Congress (M) to back the UDF also increases his prospects. Giving them a tight fight is BJP’s P.S. Sreedharan Pillai, who has been fielded by the party for the second time in a row. High on confidence after its victory in the communist citadel of Tripura, the BJP is appealing to the electorate to vote for change and development. However, it is facing a revolt within the alliance as NDA constituent Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS) has abstained from electioneering.
As the longer-than-expected campaign is drawing to a close, the three fronts are looking for a consolidation of various religious and caste votes. Above all, the road to victory in an Assembly constituency such as Chengannur lies in wielding clout among the prominent religious and caste communities. It is home to a large number of Nair, Ezhava and Christian voters. The Nairs and Christians with almost identical vote share forms more than 50% of the total voters. The Ezhava and Scheduled Caste votes come to around 35%.
NSS stand
While the Nair Service Society (NSS) has declared that it would maintain a equidistant policy, the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam leadership has left the decision to its local units. Prominent Christian organisations have also not yet declared their open stance.
Knowing that the religious and caste consolidation is crucial for their victory, the rival camps are leaving no stone unturned to garner support of the communities. Although the fronts are blaming each other for trying to create communal polarisation, their leaders and candidates are visiting leaders of various communities to ensure their support.
The LDF is hoping for consolidation of the minority and Ezhava votes in its favour along with a portion of the Nair votes, while the UDF expects to influence the Nair and Christian communities. However, it remains to be seen how the religious and caste formula would play out in the byelection.
