he Oommen Chandy team is like the ever-optimistic Keralite gulf job-seekers. Their passport, visa, and flight tickets are ready, but they are waiting for the flight to take them to their destination.
The Chandy team, it may appear, has the visa, ticket, and passport to return to their jobs. But can they catch the flight in time?
The one element that keeps the UDF together is the die hard belief that it could return to power because of the absence of an anti-incumbency trend that ruling dispensations in office have to usually tackle at the fag end of their term.
The coalition partners were able to wrap up their seat-sharing discussions without much ado, though the Kerala Congress (M) and some of the junior partners would have been happier getting a few additional seats to tackle their internal tussles.
All the coalition partners appear to have thrown their weight behind Mr. Chandy to help themselves back to power, with Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) openly expressing their total and unalloyed support to Mr. Chandy. In short, none of the coalition partners were prepared to shake the coalition’s foundation by putting up tall demands.
The IUML and other partners have their own reasons for rallying around Mr. Chandy, particularly in the backdrop of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) capturing power in Delhi on its own steam under the leadership of Narendra Modi.
The UDF leadership is apparently too wary about the designs of the BJP under the Modi-Amit Shah dispensation, seemingly aiming to upset the decades-old bipolar coalition system by triggering a polarisation of Hindu votes, particularly of the backward communities.
This is for the first time that the BJP is making a serious bid to get the better of its Kerala jinx with at least a seat. The UDF leaders also do not rule out possibilities of the BJP furthering its national ambition of demoralising the Congress party, by denying it a victory.
In the Congress, Mr. Chandy is not on a very good wicket. He obviously does not have the kind of free run he had in the UDF earlier. He has had to share platform with Home Minister Ramesh Chennithala and Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee president V.M. Sudheeran. The candidates selection was not exactly a smooth affair, with Mr. Chandy being forced to sacrifice some of his close confidantes, though he did get some smug satisfaction out of inducting another set of his supporters as replacements.
Insiders point to certain regional imbalances in candidate selection in certain constituencies, with factional imperatives getting the better of the party workers’ regional aspirations. The Congress, to some extent, has however corrected the social imbalance that had haunted the Chandy government for over three years.
One of the major threats that the Congress appears to be facing is the differing perceptions of its leadership troika led by Mr. Chandy, Mr. Chennithala, and Mr. Sudheeran on core issues. Mr. Sudheeran has not hesitated to express his reservations on some of the recent decisions of the government related to wetland conservation and allowing liquor bars to some hotels of five-star categories. Mr. Chennithala has expressed his reservations about opening more five-star bars.
The UDF will have to encounter a rejuvenated Left Democratic Front (LDF), which believes it has already made the alleged corruption under the UDF government a campaign plank. The recent government decisions related to wetland conversion and liquor bars may arm the LDF with enough ammunition.
All the coalition partners appear to have thrown their weight behind Chandy to help themselves back to power.
