The electoral battle in the three constituencies in Mysuru Urban – comprising Chamaraja, Krishnaraja and Narasimharaja – is taking an interesting turn and is not as straightforward as it appeared till a few weeks ago. For, there is an undercurrent of dissidence and dissatisfaction over the choice of candidates and this may have a bearing on the poll outcome.
Narasimharaja constituency, which has a good concentration of Muslims, has traditionally been a Congress fortress and the incumbent MLA Tanveer Sait was elected four times from here in continuation of the electoral victories of his father late Azeez Sait who represented it six times. But Tanveer Sait is facing anti-incumbency for his perceived indifference to the constituency.
This is being played up Socialist Democratic Party of India (SDPI). Its candidate Abdul Majeed gave Mr. Sait a scare in the 2013 elections and is contesting again. Besides, the JD(S) has fielded Abdulla which forced long-time party loyalist Sandesh Swamy to quit the party and join the BJP and is its official candidate from here.
So with three Muslim candidates in fray, the BJP perceives an outside chance for itself owing to a three-way split of the minority votes which could go against the Congress and the JD(S). The BJP had last tasted success under similar circumstances in 1994 when Marutirao Pawar was elected.
In the adjoining Krishnaraja constituency, the BJP’s decision to field former Minister S.A. Ramdas has created heartburn among a section of party activists. The B-form hopeful, H.V. Rajeev who was nurturing the constituency through social works, was toying with the idea of contesting as a rebel BJP candidate or as an Independent. If he does, it could divide the loyalty of the Brahmins who are in considerable numbers and are reckoned to be the traditional support base of the BJP.
In the 2013 elections, Mr. Ramdas lost by a margin of nearly 6,000 votes against M.K. Somashekar of the Congress, who benefited from Mr. Rajeev’s candidature as a KJP candidate as he polled 15,573 votes and split the BJP support base to his advantage. “Though Mr. Rajeev may not win, it will be sufficient to dent the chances of Mr. Ramdas by dividing the Brahmin votes as in 2013,” according to party functionaries.
The Chamaraja segment has former Vice-Chancellor K.S. Rangappa in fray as the JD(S) candidate, former MUDA chairman L. Nagendra as the BJP candidate, and incumbent MLA Vasu of the Congress, who is seeking a re-election. But what has queered the pitch in the Chamaraja this time is the presence of a ‘rebel’ from the JD(S) camp in Harish Gowda, who is upset that he was sidelined in favour of Prof. Rangappa. Incidentally, Chamaraja also has the highest number of educated voters to whom Prof. Rangappa is appealing in his capacity as an academic.
Meanwhile, Mr. Vasu has no hurdles from within the party and observers say developments in the JD(S) camp may shore up his chances.
Vokkaliga presence
Though Chamaraja constituency has a strong presence of Vokkaligas, the JD(S) has never won from here and was BJP’s ‘safe seat’ from 1994 to 2008. But this was more owing to the rapport of H.S. Shankarlinge Gowda (now deceased) with the electorate than the BJP’s strength.
H.S.S. Gowda contested as a JD(S) candidate in 2013 and lost, but the BJP did not benefit and slipped to the third position. As it is a Vokkaliga-dominated constituency, major political parties tend to field a candidate from the same community to boost their chances which only neutralises the perceived caste advantage. Incidentally, it also has the highest number or educated class on whom Prof. Rangappa is banking apart from the traditional party’s support base.
