For nearly five years, the Bharatiya Janata Party has attributed its loss in the 2013 State Assembly elections to the split in the party rather than anti-incumbency. Looking at the numbers, the combined votes of the BJP, Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP), and Badavara Shramikara Raitara Congress Party (BSRCP) would have resulted in at least an additional 30 seats that year.
On Tuesday, when the 2018 Assembly poll results came out, in many places — because of either local anti-incumbency or cumulative strength of the merged parties — the numbers justified this theory. Together, the combination won 23 new seats, while in seven segments the merged party lost votes.
Of the KJP members who were given ticket primarily if they had performed drastically better than the BJP candidates fielded in the previous elections, at least 19 won this time around on BJP ticket.
The story plays out in four parts. In Shivamogga, the merged party seemed to benefit from a near-complete transfer of votes, with the BJP’s candidates from both the KJP and the BJP winning by big margins.
In Bombay Karnataka, where the BJP won 30 seats this time around, only two incumbents, in Kundgol and Hubli-Dharwad East, bucked the trend. In Central Karnataka, the merger helped, with former KJP candidates winning eight seats thanks to vote accumulation.
In Hyderabad Karnataka, however, it was a mixed bag. Here the transfer of vote did not take place as the KJP candidates, who had got the minority votes in 2013, lost them when they were fielded under the BJP banner.
Take for instance in Gurmitkal where the BJP and the KJP got 42,157 votes together in 2013, which would have seen them beat the Congress’ Baburao Chinchansur, whose tally was nearly 6,000 less. However, in 2018 the BJP candidate got just 8,900 votes, with the rest transferring to the JD(S) candidate who beat Mr. Chinchansur by over 24,000 votes.
In Sindhanur, if the combined BJP factions got over 58,000 votes in 2013, it was reduced to barely 14,000 in 2018,. Here, too, the JD(S) benefited.
Political acquisitions
Meanwhile, apart from the mergers, the BJP seems to have benefited from the acquisition of JD(S) and Congress MLAs who had stood second in their constituencies in 2013.
If the acquisition of four incumbent MLAs saw half of them lose, all seven of the acquired candidates that had come second in 2013, including five from the JD(S), won this time. With an inherent vote base and the anti-incumbency against the sitting MLAs, these candidates took pole position in 2018.
