The country is likely to see normal monsoon rains, though there’s a threat from an anomalous warming in the Indian Ocean, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.
The country is likely to get 97% of the 89 cm it normally gets between June and September. Last year, it got 95%. The IMD has ruled out chances of a “deficient rainfall”.
Details, such as how the monsoon will pan out over the country and the quantum of rainfall in July and August — the key monsoon months — would be made available in the department's June update, said IMD chief K.J. Ramesh at a press conference in New Delhi.
The Met department uses a statistical model for its forecast. Another model, called the dynamical model, forecasts 99% rainfall.
The IMD bases it's optimism on an assessment that an El Nino, associated with a weak monsoon is unlikely.
However another factor, called the Indian Ocean Dipole, which if “positive” helps the monsoon and will likely not aid the monsoon's case this year. This will be clearer in the next month.
