The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday forecast that rains over the next two months of the monsoon season could be heavy.
It was put at 107 per cent of the long period average for the period, with a model error of plus or minus seven per cent.
Addressing a press conference to mark the end of the first half of the four-month season, IMD Director General Ajit Tyagi said there was also a possibility for a delayed withdrawal of the monsoon, which may spill over to the first week of October this year.
‘Too early'
He, however, declined to comment on whether the possible delay in monsoon withdrawal could pose a threat to the Commonwealth Games slated to be held in Delhi from October 3 to 14.
“Now, we can only say that there is a possibility for the withdrawal being delayed. Climatologically, we can only say that if the withdrawal is delayed, rains could continue in Central and the southern parts of the country. But, it is too early to give a detailed prediction of what would happen in October.”
Cumulative precipitation
Meanwhile, the country has recorded a cumulative precipitation of 95 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) since the beginning of the season, thanks mainly to a good spell of rain during the past 10 days. This has brought the deficiency to a mere five per cent from 16 per cent at the end of June.
‘Fairly widespread'
He said the rainfall had been fairly widespread, except in the east and north-east region.
The region, which comprised West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, and the north-eastern States still had a deficiency of 24 per cent as of Thursday.
The situation is also likely to improve in the coming days and weeks. But, the deficiency may not be neutralised fully.
It may end up with a deficiency of 10 per cent.
Normal rainfall
He said that for the country, the rainfall for the season in its entirety was likely to be normal, at 102 per cent of the LPA in line with the prediction made by the Department in June.
While the east and north-eastern regions could have a deficiency of 10 per cent, the rainfall over central and north-western regions could be normal, and that over the south peninsular region slightly above normal.
No cause for worry
Replying to a query, he acknowledged that so far the monsoon this year has not been textbook style, in that no low pressure system has so far developed in the northern region of the Bay of Bengal.
During the past two months, several cyclonic circulations and low pressure systems have formed over the Bay of Bengal, but they have all been south of the ‘normal' position. Consequently, the systems remained weak and did not develop further into cyclonic depressions, which are a normal feature of the monsoon.
“Anomaly”
Agreeing that it was an “anomaly,” and that it had happened last year too, he stressed that there was no need for concern.
“We will have to wait and watch. If the trend continues, then it could become a matter of concern. As of now, there is nothing to worry.”
