Even as the four-month southwest monsoon officially came to an end on Wednesday, with an overall deficiency of 23 per cent, making it the worst ever season since 1972, when the deficiency was 24 per cent, the India Meteorological Department has forecast more rains in different parts of the country at least for the next one week.
According to the IMD, while there could be fairly widespread rainfall over north interior peninsula during the first half of the next one week and over the adjoining areas of Central and Western India during the second half, scattered rainfall activity is likely over the Northeastern States and adjoining Eastern India through the week and over plains of North-West India during the second half.
The new spell is expected since a well marked low pressure area, which is lying over West-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining the north of coastal Andhra Pradesh and south of coastal Orissa, is likely to move slowly west-north-westwards towards south Gujarat region, a fresh cyclonic circulation or low pressure area is likely to develop over north-west Bay of Bengal off Orissa coast around October 5. Also, a western disturbance as an upper air system is likely to affect north-west India from October 4.
Consequently, the withdrawal phase of the monsoon is likely to extend at least beyond the next one week. ``Due to likely easterly winds and moisture incursion, there is no possibility of further withdrawal of southwest monsoon during the next [one] week’’, said an IMD press release.
So far, the monsoon has withdrawn from many parts of Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and some parts of Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh and north Gujarat. On Thursday, the withdrawal line passed through Uttarkashi, Aligarh, Sawai Madhopur, Udaipur and Naliya.
Meanwhile, at the official end of the season [monsoon officially begins on June 1 and ends on September 30], out of the total of 533 meteorological districts in the country, 41 districts (8 per cent) have recorded ``scanty’’ rainfall, or a deficiency of over 60 per cent, and 270 more (51 per cent) have recorded ``deficient’’ rainfall or a deficiency of between 20 per cent and 59 per cent.
The north-west region comprising of Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Chandigarh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Rajasthan led the table with a deficiency of 36 per cent. It is followed by the north-east region, with a deficiency of 27 per cent. The region includes Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim, and Jharkhand, apart from the Northeastern States.
Central India, which comprises of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Goa, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa and Chattisgarh, occupies the third place with a deficiency of 20 per cent. The south peninsular region, comprising of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar, brings up the rear with a deficiency of four per cent from the normal.
The north-west and the north-east regions were consistently on the back foot right through the season, with the deficiencies remaining above the 20 per cent throughout. The north-east region witnessed the worst period in the week ending June 24, when the deficiency rose to as much as 55 per cent. The north-west region had its worst time in the week ending July 8, when the deficiency rose to 50 per cent.
In Central India, it was a roller coaster ride. Starting with a deficiency of 50 per cent for the week ending June 3, it recorded the maximum deficiency of 73 per cent in the week ending June 24. After that following several spells of good rainfalls, the deficiency even got wiped out completely by July 22, when the region had recorded a surplus of three per cent over the long period average. However, subsequently the situation got back into the negative territory, ending up with a deficiency of 20 per cent.
The southern peninsular region has been the most lucky, although a brief while the situation in the region too seemed to be getting out of control. In the week ending June 24, the deficiency in the region rose up to 38 per cent. It soon came down to 31 per cent next week. Since then, the deficiency never rose beyond 25 per cent.
However, rainfall was not uniformly good across the region. Andhra Pradesh, particularly the Telengana and coastal Andhra Pradesh, had a bad time right through. While Telengana has ended with a deficiency of 35 per cent, coastal Andhra Pradesh has ended with a deficiency of 25 per cent.