For the Congress, the daily sparring with the Trinamool Congress, its largest ally in the United Progressive Alliance, over issues, small and big, is beginning to take its toll. It is therefore seriously looking at the possibility of bolstering its position by getting a new ally. The UPA's strength in the Lok Sabha recently went up when it roped in the five MP-strong Rashtriya Lok Dal, even giving the party leader, Ajit Singh, a berth in the Union Cabinet. Now, the Congress is eyeing Mulayam Singh's Samajwadi Party, with its 22 MPs.
With the UPA reeling under crisis after crisis, solidarity among the coalition's members would have helped the Congress take on the Opposition more vigorously. But in the few months since she became Chief Minister of West Bengal, Trinamool supremo Mamata Banerjee has made it more than evident that the interests of her own party will take precedence over any coalition dharma.
Ms. Banerjee has also missed no opportunity to needle the Congress in West Bengal, even though they share a government there, banking on the fact that the party needs her backing far more in Delhi. Her attempt last week, for instance, to rename a Kolkata landmark — Indira Bhavan — after Kazi Nazrul Islam, Bengal's revolutionary poet, saw the Congress hitting the streets in the city, and a hint of sharpness in its central spokespersons, usually conciliatory on the Trinamool. On Tuesday, Manish Tewari said, “We have no objection to the naming of places after poets, but one thing must be kept in mind — Indira Gandhi was not just a national leader, she was once the West Bengal Chief Minister's leader.”
With the UPA enjoying a bare majority in the Lok Sabha and having to rely on outside support from the SP, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Rashtriya Janata Dal to provide it a cushion, the fact that the Trinamool is not a dependable ally is a matter of constant concern. When it comes to providing support on crucial issues, such as the Teesta Waters Accord with Bangladesh, or important policy matters or key pieces of legislation, the Congress simply cannot count on Ms. Banerjee. For her, the position she adopts on any issue is almost always determined by the stand taken by the Left in West Bengal, lest it gain any political advantage. This was true when she opposed the entry of Foreign Direct Investment in multibrand retail; this was true when she changed her mind on the Lokpal Bill. On Tuesday, she even accused the Congress of colluding with the Left against her.
Quest for numbers
In its quest for the solid comfort of numbers, the Congress, therefore, recently tied up with the RLD, not just to improve its electoral prospects in western Uttar Pradesh but also to strengthen the UPA. Congress sources say that if the party is to seriously engage in governance for the rest of its term, it needs to strengthen its position. It is now looking to the coming Uttar Pradesh polls to provide that sustenance: it hopes that if the SP emerges as the single largest party, an SP-Congress-RLD government could replace the one headed by Mayawati's BSP and, in Delhi, the SP could join the UPA and the Union Council of Ministers.
Publicly, of course, the Congress — responding to the SP's Akhilesh Yadav saying a post-poll alliance with the party was possible — on Tuesday claimed it would emerge as the sole alternative to the BSP. A senior Congress leader even said the party was now working to a plan in Uttar Pradesh, focussing on forging a Muslim-Kurmi alliance which would help it in each of the 107 constituencies where the combine has more than 50,000 votes. In ticket distribution, the sources said, it has concentrated on the upper castes, the Muslims and the most backward castes. The Congress, which won just 22 seats in 2007, knows that its plans to form a government with the SP will come to nought unless it at least trebles its numbers — for that, it has to project that it is in the contest.
Clearly, the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections will determine the Congress-led UPA's future in Delhi: if the SP joins the UPA coalition, the Congress will be able to tackle the Trinamool from a position of strength, rather than one of total vulnerability, as was on display in the Rajya Sabha on December 29.
