The BJP will have to wait till 2016 to replace the Congress as the single largest party in the Rajya Sabha, the House where it has been finding it hard to get legislation through.
This year, the NDA it heads will add only three seats in Jammu and Kashmir, one each in Maharashtra and Puducherry and one nominated member in the Upper House.
Of course, its decision in Jammu and Kashmir to form a government with the Peoples Democratic Party is being labelled as “unprincipled” by some Opposition parties: “The BJP is accusing other parties of unprincipled post-poll alliances for the sake of power. How will you describe its arrangement with the PDP, giving up on its position on Article 370, AFSPA etc., just for power in Jammu and Kashmir, and MPs in the Rajya Sabha,” asked Janata Dal (United) Rajya Sabha MP K.C. Tyagi.
Jammu and Kashmir’s four Rajya Sabha seats are currently held by the Congress and the National Conference, two each. With the PDP-BJP and the Congress-NC coming to separate agreements for the February 7 poll, the former can win at least three, while the latter may win one seat. The NC has agreed to back the Congress’s Ghulam Nabi Azad: if they pull it off, Mr. Azad will continue as Leader of the Opposition in the Upper House.
Similarly, in Maharashtra, after the death last November of veteran Congress leader Murli Deora, one Rajya Sabha seat fell vacant. Reports suggest that it will be filled after Prime Minister Narendra Modi decides who else to induct into his Council of Ministers from the State. That seat will swell the BJP tally, unless the party decides to give it to its reluctant partner, the Shiv Sena.
In April, three seats in Kerala, two currently held by the Left Democratic Front and one by the Congress-led United Democratic Front, will fall vacant. With the UDF in power, it should win two seats, the Left one.
In October, Puducherry’s lone seat, held by the Congress, will switch hands: the All India NR Congress, a BJP ally, will get it. And in November, the term of veteran journalist H.K. Dua, a nominated member, will end, making it possible for the BJP to name its own choice.
Last year, after the BJP won Haryana, two Rajya Sabha seats, one held by the Congress and the other by the Indian National Lok Dal, changed hands. Union Rural Development Minister Birender Singh, who had crossed over from the Congress to the BJP before the general elections, got the seat he had vacated; the other went to Union Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu, as the INLD’s R.S. Prajapati resigned after becoming an MLA.
By end-2015, the BJP’s 45 Rajya Sabha MPs will swell to 47, plus one nominated member: its allies, the PDP, and the All India NR Congress, will add another three to the NDA. If the PDP-BJP alliance is lucky, the BJP might get another seat. In short, the NDA tally could go up by six – and at best seven – seats.
The 69-MP strong Congress will lose one seat each in Jammu and Kashmir, Maharashtra and Puducherry, gaining only one in Kerala. Only in 2016, the BJP could add 15 RS seats; if it wins Bihar, perhaps around 20.
