With the BJP winning the numbers to come to power in Jharkhand, the question being asked is what worked for the party, along with the All Jharkhand Students’ Union, to get to the magic figure of 42 in the 81-member Assembly. Was it “Modi magic,” the party’s campaign management or polarisation between tribal and other votes that helped it click? Or have the people decided to vote in a stable government, fed up with the corruption and instability that marked the 14 years since the birth of the State?
None of the nine governments that had come to power in the State could complete its term. President’s rule was imposed thrice. The election was a contest between the BJP and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM). Jharkhand has a 28 per cent tribal population, and traditionally, it has been helping the JMM win more seats. But, as experts say, tribal leaders like Mr. Marandi have been claiming some of the party’s vote share. Altogether, 18 Assembly seats fall in Santhal Pragana from where the most number of JMM candidates had been winning the election.
“The BJP definitely got this as an opportunity and tried its best to consolidate the non-tribal votes to improve its tally. But as the results have come, it appears that the party not only have been successful in its strategy but also have managed to penetrate tribal areas,” B.K. Sinha, Head of Political Science, St. Xavier’s College, Ranchi, told The Hindu.
“To some extent yes, I will say the verdict for the BJP was polarised between tribal and non-tribal issues,” Professor Sinha said. But, he said, the party got fewer seats than expected. “It was not sheer coincidence that tribal leaders like [the former Chief Ministers] Madhu Koda, Arjun Munda and Babulal Marandi and [incumbent Chief Minister] Hemant Soren [only in Dumka] have been trounced by BJP candidates,” he said.
However, L.M. Prasad, former Dean of Social Sciences and Head of Political Science in Ranchi University, differed with Professor Sinha, saying there was no tribal and non-tribal polarisation as the number of tribal people in the State was not electorally decisive.
“There is no polarisation on the lines of tribal and non-tribal issues; rather, voters of the State saw a possibility in [Prime Minster] Narendra Modi to free them from corruption and unstable governments,” Professor Prasad said. “The RSS has already made deep inroads into tribal areas such as Santhal Pargana for long. Why didn’t they get seats earlier from there?”
“In urban areas, there was definitely a wave for Narendra Modi and in rural areas, where the JMM is strong, the BJP had selected candidates taking into consideration local acceptability and connections, which ultimately paid them dividends,” he said.
Speaking to The Hindu, some local politicians cutting across party lines said it was all along three Ms: magic, management and manoeuvring of Mr. Modi, which proved fatal for the Opposition parties.
