For any politically loaded ‘yatra’ to be a success, there has to be a favourable ecosystem, a compelling context, and a situation where people fed up with the ruling dispensation crave and look for alternatives. Timing too plays a crucial role.
Advantage YSR in 2003
When the venerable Congress leader, Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy, embarked on a padayatra in 2003, his arch political rival and the then Chief Minister, N. Chandrababu Naidu, looked very vulnerable.
For the fourth consecutive year, there was drought affecting a sizeable section of people and the government’s ameliorative steps looked patchy and grossly inadequate.
Agriculture sector was on a downward slide. Irrigation was not getting the importance it deserved. Power reforms and stiff tariff hit the common man. There was this widely held perception that ‘the poster boy of economic reforms’ and the ‘jet-setting’ Mr. Naidu and his policies were more World Bank-oriented and whatever development happened was visible only around Hyderabad. In short, people, having seen his Chief Ministership and his policies for nine long years, became, in a way, Naidu-weary and were just waiting for an alternative to emerge. Dr. Rajasekhara Reddy took full advantage of the prevailing situation, moulded public opinion to his side through the padayatra, and endeared himself to the people. At 55, when Dr. Reddy took the strenuous 1,450-km padayatra, he had his own compulsions too. He had to win battles on two fronts — one against Mr. Naidu and the other within the Congress, a party always having a dozen or more Chief Minister probables. It was nothing short of a ‘do or die’ battle, and he won comfortably, situation having favoured him.
Telangana agitation
Mr. Naidu did the encore, in almost a similar situation, in 2012. There was uncertainty and instability all around with agitation for separate Telangana peaking. With the passing away of Dr. Rajasekhara Reddy, the Congress, which by then completed seven years in office, could not find a formidable leader who could steer the State out of a state of turmoil.
Clearly, a leadership gap was showing and people appeared tired of the Congress.
By then 62, Mr. Naidu saw this as an opportunity, used the 2,500-km padayatra as an effective come-back weapon.
It is a different matter that he could become Chief Minister of a truncated State of Andhra Pradesh and not an integrated one as he wished.
As 44-year-old YSRCP president and Leader of the Opposition in Assembly, Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy and son of Dr. Rajasekhara Reddy began his marathon 3,000-km foot march, ‘Praja Sankalpa Yatra’, the same two questions have come to the fore.
Is the situation in residual Andhra Pradesh as bad as it was in the united A.P. of 2003 or 2012? Is it the right time for Mr. Jagan to traverse the padayatra path to capture power, or did he jump the gun? Are people weary of a mere three-year-old regime and do they want a change?
There are aye and naye sayers.
Those favouring Mr. Jagan’s padayatra would argue that three years is good enough time, especially for an experienced leader, to deliver what he had promised. Not a single election promise was implemented.
There was all-round corruption. The capital, Amaravati, looks like a mirage with not a brick being laid. Mr. Naidu compromised and failed to get the coveted Special Category Status that would have attracted industries to the State and generated employment. As many as 22 YSRCP MLAs were lured into the ruling party.
Should the Opposition ignore such issues and not agitate? Agitations and protests yes, but should padayatra, as an option to capture power, exhausted so early?
The other category would say it is not the right time at all as it is just over three years since the ‘unscientific’ bifurcation happened and the State of Andhra Pradesh is yet to recover from the multiple shocks it was administered — legacy of ₹16,000 crore deficit, no capital city and a loss of Hyderabad that generated income of ₹60,000 crore, no proper division of river water — and the list goes on.
Naidu’s strength
After all, it was after weighing the pros and cons, the people in 2014 Assembly elections opted for a seasoned Mr. Naidu over a young, but new political entrant Mr. Jagan, conscious of the former’s administrative experience and his ability to rebuild and pitchfork Hyderabad to international map.
Having stitched a pre-poll alliance with the BJP and enjoying reasonably good equation, Mr. Naidu managed to get funds, whatever is possible from the Centre. Achievements like merger of villages to be submerged by Polavaram project into A.P., pooling of 33,000 acres for the capital, and completion of the Pattiseema irrigation project were indeed significant.
And the results of Nandyal Assembly byelection and Kakinada municipal election often treated as political barometer showed that people are on Mr. Naidu’s side, so goes their argument.
In contrast, they contend, Mr. Jagan, by going on a ‘premature’ padayatra, is showing up as a young politician in a tearing hurry to become Chief Minister, much like how MLAs’ support was mobilised for him to become CM soon after his father passed away.
Such arguments will continue all through his padayatra and beyond till the outcome of 2019 Assembly elections!
