Congress party’s decision to bifurcate the State may not bring windfall for it in the general elections in at least 17 out of 24 Assembly segments falling under the Greater Hyderabad area, if the reported concentration of Seemandhra population is taken into consideration.
The hope of electoral gains for the ruling party in the twin cities and Ranga Reddy may not work as the Seemandhra population ranges from 50,000 to 1.75 lakh voters in each of the 17 constituencies - a figure no political party can afford to ignore. Political leaders estimate the figure in the two districts to be about 26 lakh, enough to make or mar the chances of any political party.
Out of the 15 Assembly constituencies in Hyderabad district, as many as eight – Musheerabad, Amberpet, Khairatabad, Jubilee Hills, Sanatnagar, Nampally, Secunderabad and Secunderabad Cantonment have good number of people from Seemandhra.
They also dominate the 14 constituencies in Ranga Reddy - Medchal, Malkajgiri, Qutbullapur, Kukatpally, Uppal, Serilingampally, L.B. Nagar, Rajendranagar and Maheswaram.
Before delimitation of constituencies in 2007-08, in the 294 constituencies - 134 were in Coastal Andhra, 53 - Rayalaseema and 107 - Telangana. After delimitation as per the 2001 census, the number of constituencies in Coastal Andhra came down to 123 and one segment was reduced in Rayalaseema to make it 52.
The real gainer was Telangana with 12 additional constituencies, most of which were added in Hyderabad and Ranga Reddy. The number of Assembly constituencies in Ranga Reddy shot up from six to 14, which is attributed to large scale migration from the Seemandhra region since the 80s.
Statistics buttress the point that the migrant population in the constituencies abutting the twin cities has increased compared to the five rural segments in Ranga Reddy district. The number of voters in L.B. Nagar are 4.43 lakh, Serilingampally - 4.26 lakh, Qutbullapur - 4.24 lakh, Kukatpally - 4.03 lakh, Malkajgiri - 3.77 lakh, Uppal - 3.26 lakh, Maheswaram - 3.01 lakh and Rajendranagar - 2.85 lakh.
In comparison, the voters in five remaining constituencies of Ranga Reddy, namely, Ibrahimpatnam are 2 lakh, Chevella - 1.91 lakh, Parigi - 1.82 lakh, Tandur - 1.76 lakh and Vikarabad - 1.72 lakh. “If people who have migrated are angry over the State’s bifurcation, it will certainly influence the voting pattern,” a senior politician, pleading anonymity said.
Political parties also acknowledge that it’s not going to be easy for the Congress party in the city and suburbs for having taken the bifurcation route or even the Telugu Desam having to explain its ‘two eye’ theory. The YSR Congress, with its tilt towards the united A.P., need not be completely written off in these parts.
The MIM has a traditional sway in at least six constituencies because of the its hold on the minority vote bank. The BJP and TRS will be hoping to cash in on the pro-Telangana slogan.