Amarnath Yatra, set to begin on June 29, will be a litmus test of how far the situation in Kashmir has worsened, say concerned analysts dealing with the issue across various security agencies. With about 200 active militants and several times more agitated civilians, security agencies are already gearing up for a violent summer in the Valley.
Almost a lakh of people have registered for the Amarnath Yatra this year. While helicopter services are quite popular among yatris, thousands of them still trek to the holy site.
The two routes — Pahalgam-Chandanwari track and Sonamarg-Baltal track — would allow 7,500 yatris per day. Besides a few hundred would be taking helicopters.
“Amarnath Yatra would for me will be the measure how bad the situation is,” said one of the most seasoned Kashmir observers in the government.
Previous setbacks
The yatra has suffered two significant setbacks since the militancy started in late 1980s. Between 1991 and 1995, the pilgrimage was put off by the government because of militant threats. In 2000, terrorists struck at the base camp of the yatra in Pahalgam, killing 32 people.
Officials said they are preparing for the yatra, and would be significantly beefing up security along the entire route of the yatra. “We won’t leave anything to chance this time,” an army officer said.
“It is one sure way of sending a message,” another official says. He pointed out that there is much more religious undertone to the protests ever since the PDP-BJP combine came to power in the State.
New militant recruits
Security agencies estimate that anywhere between 150 and 200 armed terrorists are now active in the Kashmir Valley. “Their numbers are one of the lowest, but most of them are very active and recent recruits,” one officer pointed out.
According to an official estimate tabled in Parliament, 2016 saw the highest number of youths joining militancy in Jammu and Kashmir in the past six years — 88 of them.
Recently inputs have also pointed towards the major terror groups — Lashkar-e-Toiba, Hizubl Mujahideen and Jaish-e-Mohammed — joining hands to operate together. A recent video showed about 30 terrorists from these groups together. Posting militant videos to social media is a trend started by Hizbul commander Burhan Wani, whose death in an encounter on July 8 last year triggered the present phase of clashes that has left dozens dead.
“We should be prepared for more attacks on security installations and for open public support to terrorists,” an army officer said, while discussing Thursday’s attack on an army camp in Kupwara in which an elderly civilian was killed in protests following the attack.
