Two different opinion polls ahead of the upcoming Assembly elections in four States and one Union territory have predicted conflicting outcomes in Assam whereas Tamil Nadu and West Bengal may see a return of incumbent governments; the only definitive change in government is predicted for Kerala, with the Left Democratic Front (LDF) winning comfortably.
The India TV-Cvoter opinion polls, telecast on channels Times Now and India TV on Friday, predicted that the upcoming elections in Assam may throw up a hung assembly, while the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and AIADMK are poised to retain power in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu respectively with comfortable majorities.
The survey says the LDF is going to stage a comeback in Kerala. In Assam, the BJP-led alliance is projected to win 55 seats in a House of 126, nine short of majority.
'BJP front to win in Assam'
Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi's Congress is projected to win 53 seats, down from the 78 it won five years ago. Badruddin Ajmal's All Indian United Democratic Front is projected to win 12 seats, six less than last time, while 'Others' may win six. The BJP-led alliance includes the Asom Gana Parishad and Bodo People's Front.
Voting percentage wise, the BJP-led alliance is projected to get 35 per cent, up from 33.9 per cent last time, while the ruling Congress vote share may be reduced to 36.9 per cent from 39.4 per cent last time. The AIUDF's vote share may drop marginally to 12.1 per cent from 12.6 per cent.
AIADMK to return
In Tamil Nadu, Chief Minister Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK-led combine may get a comfortable majority with 130 seats in a house of 234, with the DMK-Congress alliance projected to win 70 seats. The BJP-led alliance may not win a single assembly seat, according to the poll. ‘Others’ may win 34 seats. The opinion poll was conducted in the fourth week of March, according to C-Voter.
In terms of percentage of votes, the AIADMK’s vote share may fall to 39.1 per cent down from 51.9 per cent, while the DMK-Congress alliance’s vote share may drop to 31.8 per cent from 39.5 per cent. The BJP-led alliance's vote share is projected to rise to 4.1 per cent.
Clear win for LDF
In Kerala, the Left Democratic Front is projected to get a comfortable majority with 86 seats in a house of 140, with the Congress-led United Democratic Front is projected to win 53 seats. The BJP-led alliance may win only one seat.
In West Bengal, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is projected to retain power, with her party Trinamool Congress projected to win 160 seats in a House of 294. The CPI(M)-Congress combine is projected to win 137 seats in all , while BJP is projected to win only four.
ABP News-Nielsen survey
The ABP News-Nielsen opinion poll on Assam has given the BJP-led alliance 78 seats while it has projected that the TMC will retain power in West Bengal.
