In mid-September last year, upper caste lawyers at the Allahabad High Court were heard saying that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would soon avenge the killing of Indian soldiers at Uri. They were right. On September 28 came the surgical strikes on Pakistani terror camps.
But last week, senior lawyer Satish Trivedi was scathing in his criticism of the demonetisation that followed the surgical strikes. “No other country would have undergone such harassment without protest. It was unconstitutional. Neither the Union Cabinet nor Parliament was part of the decision,” he said. “It will have an impact on the polls — the voters are just silent.” Pushed further, he shrugged his shoulders: “Perhaps the way Mr. Modi framed it — ‘I am fighting corruption’ — deterred people from speaking out.”
“There was also no viable leadership in the Opposition to give voice to their [the people’s] agony,” said his younger colleague, Seshadri Trivedi (no relative). “Every revolution requires a leader to hold the umbrella.”
Today, while local Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders have stopped highlighting demonetisation in their speeches as an achievement, Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Mayawati of the Bahujan Samaj Party are frontally attacking notebandi , hoping to tap into the people’s latent unhappiness with the measure.
Congress MLA Anugrah Narayan Singh, re-contesting from Allahabad North, said, “Note pe attack hua tha . Ab vote pe attack hogi (after the attack on currency notes, there will be an attack on votes).”
BJP leaders in U.P. say that if the surgical strikes put the party in an unassailable position electorally, Mr. Modi’s demonetisation announcement took the wind out of their sails.
“The BJP’s graph was very high after the surgical strikes but notebandi ,” a BJP MP said, “has affected us adversely, particularly in rural areas. It is hoped than some elements in the Budget will offset it.”
His sentiments are echoed by BJP and RSS functionaries elsewhere, who can see the anger especially visible among farmers, traders and sections of the middle class.
Supporters among poor
Of course, notebandi has its supporters — among the abjectly poor and in the ranks of die-hard BJP supporters, especially those who go back to its Jan Sangh days, the first because they had nothing to lose and the latter because, for them, Hindutva overrides all other concerns.
At Kumedankheda village in the Purwa Assembly constituency in Unnao district, Harish Chand, a Lodhi farmer, said, “ Notebandi hurt the poor, especially those who had weddings. People are very angry. The impact will be seen in the polls.” His friend Uma Shankar, a minor government functionary, nodded in agreement.
But in the same village, the not-so-well-to-do Deshraj Lodhi, Yashoda Lodhi and Bind Prasad Pasi said demonetisation was an excellent measure as it hit the rich very hard. “If the BJP wins, it will be fun. Last year, he did notebandi , I can’t wait to see what sensation he will create next,” Mr. Deshraj said before breaking into peals of laughter.
On the western edge of the State, in Budhana tensil of Muzaffarnagar, the people of the backward caste of Prajapati remain unaffected, but the Jats are furious.
BJP revises strategy
Meenu and Shiv Kumar, both Prajapatis, work in the nearby brick kilns and find it hard to get work at the best of times. So, they said, demonetisation did not affect them. A few yards away, Sikandar Singh, sitting and chatting with fellow Jats Vijender and Balbir, said notebandi had devastated the farming community and so they would vote for the Rashtriya Lok Dal rather than the BJP.
As it becomes clear that demonetisation will have an impact on the polls, the BJP is now focussing not on its own achievements but on the shortcomings of its political rivals while trying to replay the Hindu card quietly again.
