Of the States going to elections next month, the one in Uttar Pradesh is the most significant nationally but, for the Congress, it is in Uttarakhand, Manipur, Punjab and Goa where it has a chance of victory.
In Uttarkhand and Manipur, it is currently in power; in Punjab and Goa, it is the principal Opposition.
In the battle for U.P., the Congress can at best play a supportive role if it allies with the ruling Samajwadi Party.
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has spoken of an alliance publicly but so far, there has been no forward movement. Congress sources said the party would give the SP another week to sort out its internal problems before finally closing the door.
Officially, the Congress said it will contest all 403 seats, even as spokesperson Ajoy Kumar maintained that it was willing to “cooperate” with other parties “to rip off the mask of development (of the BJP) beneath which fascism lurked”.
Divided opinions
The Congress is divided on the issue: knowing that in an alliance it won’t get more than 50-odd seats, one group feels that by not contesting all 403 seats now, the party will lose even more ground ahead of the 2019 general elections.
The second group believes the BJP must be defeated at all costs now as a U.P. victory would help it make a pathway to 2019. On Wednesday, former Delhi CM Sheila Dikshit, the Congress’s CM face, told NDTV: “Akhilesh Yadav is a much better Chief Ministerial candidate than me”.
In Punjab, where the Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP combine has been in power for a decade, the Congress hopes to make a comeback under its CM candidate, Capt. Amarinder Singh.
The problem for the Congress is the entry of a third party, the Aam Aadmi Party, in the fray, that has made it into a triangular contest.
The AAP, it may be recalled, won four of Punjab’s 13 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. If the AAP cuts substantially into the Congress vote, the party might find the going a little hard. Five years ago, a SAD splinter took away enough votes from the Congress to give the SAD-BJP a second term in office.
In Goa, too, where the BJP is in power, AAP’s growing presence in the state has thrown the Congress’s plans awry.
The Congress is, however, confident of retaining Uttarakhand and Manipur. In Uttarakhand, party sources say that Chief Minister Harish Rawat — seen as a strongman — will pull it off despite some tension with state Congress chief Kishore Upadhyay.
In Manipur, the site of a long drawn-out economic blockade, Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh will be completing his third term in office.
Party sources said the Congress is confident of winning a majority of the 40 seats in the valley and the 10 in the Kuki areas; it was only uncertain about the remaining 10 seats in the Naga areas.
