The India Meteorological Department on Friday forecast that the South-West Monsoon would continue to remain subdued over most parts of the south peninsular region and central India over the next one week, while being fairly good over east, north-east and the north-western parts of the country.

The forecast comes in the wake of signals that the monsoon trough could once again shift to north of its normal position from Sunday.

In a press release, the department said there were also indications that a western disturbance could affect the north-west region from Monday and a cyclonic circulation could form in the lower tropospheric levels over Uttar Pradesh around Tuesday.

The situation, it said, could, however, change for the better for the south peninsular region and central India by next Saturday, with the strengthening of monsoon flows over the Arabian Sea.

Rain deficit

The deficiency in rainfall for the country has gone up to 14 per cent from 10 per cent last week. The north-west region continues to fare the worst, with the deficiency going up to 18 per cent from six per cent a week ago.

Uttar Pradesh had the maximum deficiency of 49 per cent: 59 of the 71 districts have a deficiency of over 20 per cent, and of them 28 had deficiencies of over 60 per cent. The eastern part of the State is the worst hit. Jharkhand followed it with a deficiency of 45 per cent.

Experts at the IMD said the situation could improve in these two States over the next one week with the models indicating the formation of a cyclonic circulation over Uttar Pradesh.