The Brexit referendum verdict continued to spread turmoil and confusion in the United Kingdom’s political and economic landscape on day two after the vote. While the long-term economic consequences of the break with the European Union remain unclear, its political consequences are playing out true to predictions.
The first is the real threat to the geographical integrity of the U.K. as a fallout of Brexit. Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland, a region that voted for Remain, announced after a cabinet meeting that her government would begin work on legislation for the option of a second independence referendum, and meanwhile seek “immediate discussions” with Brussels to “protect Scotland's place in the EU” in the wake of the Brexit vote.
Rumblings of a similar nature are being heard in Northern Ireland, where after decades of sectarian violence, a fragile peace agreement in 1988 has kept the country together. Following the vote, in which Northern Ireland voted to stay in the EU by a majority, Martin McGuinness, the Sinn Fein leader, said there was a 'democratic imperative' to allow people to vote on reunification with Ireland, a demand that could intensify, particularly if Scotland gets its second referendum.
A proposition far-fetched but indicative of the angry mood of Londoners (as the petition addressed to Mayor Sadiq Khan has already attracted a million signatures), has even called for London to declare independence from the U.K.! Mr. Khan has called upon Londoners “not to panic”, but has also said that he will be pushing for the U.K. to remain part of the single market in the negotiations with the EU. Observers say that this is unlikely to be conceded, as with the single market comes the free movement of labour, a principle the pro-Brexit side is stoutly opposed to.
Brussels is pressing hard on the accelerator for the U.K. to quickly initiate Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty that triggers the process of disengaging from the EU. The statements by the foreign ministers of the six founding countries of the EU held in Berlin today indicated the urgency with which these heads of state wish to insulate the EU and their own economies from the Brexit upheaval. The French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, went so far as saying that Prime Minister David Cameron, who had negotiated special exemptions for the U.K. from EU regulations, should step down and a new prime minister designated in a few days. For the French government, already under pressure from widespread working class protests, finds that the Brexit contagion has given rise to demands for Frexit from the leader of the far right National Party Marion Le Pen.
Meanwhile, the Labour Party is seeing its own troubles with a few Labour Party members of Parliament — Margaret Hodge and Steven Kinnock among them — calling for a change in party leadership. They accuse Jeremy Corbyn of failing to convincingly carry the Remain message, as 63 percent of the electorate that voted for Labour in 2015 had voted for Leave. Mr. Corbyn, who still carries a majority of the party’s support, has dismissed the demand to step down.
The beginnings of a leadership struggle in the Conservative Party have made an appearance. The likely contender is the former London Mayor Boris Johnson. However the flamboyant member of Parliament, who led the Leave campaign, is not supported by all sections of the party. Some support Home Secretary Theresa May, who may emerge as a possible contender for the post.
