The British referendum on their future in the European Union is non-binding on the government, but the result is a clear sign that the British public want to leave. There is no set procedure on how the exit is going to work. Here are few ways through which the United Kingdom could begin its exit from the EU.
Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union
The Treaty of Lisbon, which came into effect in 2009, does allow a nation to secede from the European Union. Paragraph 1 of Article 50 states: “Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.”
As the United Kingdom has voted to leave, the government, to start the process, would have to send the European Council a notice stating their intention to withdraw from the European Union. This would give them a chance to negotiate agreements on their withdrawal within a two-year timeframe. This timeframe can only be extended by a unanimous decision of the European Council.
Once the U.K. begins its formal negotiations with the EU after the Article 50 is invoked, it will have to decide on what it wants the agreement to entail. If the U.K. still wants access to the single market, it may be forced to sign an agreement similar to the one that Norway signed. Norway, a member of the European Economic Area, has to follow all the rules the EU has for its internal market. This includes the policy on the movement of people. The ‘Leave’ campaign has used immigration as one of its largest talking points and it may be difficult for the U.K. to get access to the EU single market without making such concessions. Further, signing an agreement similar to Norway would leave the U.K. powerless to change any future EU legislation regarding the internal market, as exit means it gives up its voting rights within the organisation.
If the U.K. wishes to create policy-specific agreements with the EU, it would have to keep updating it as the market grows and evolves. These policy specific agreements would also have to go through the whole EU process.
The EU-U.K. agreement is time bound. The EU controls the timescale of the negotiation and unless there is a unanimous decision within the European Council to increase the time frame, the two parties have two years to iron out an agreement. If there is no extension and an agreement has not been signed, the EU laws would cease to apply within the U.K., which could have far-reaching consequences.
Post exit, any trade agreement between the EU and U.K. will be a drawn out process if it is a mixed agreement, i.e., it also affects services, transportation or other policy areas. In that case the agreement must also be passed by the Parliaments of the 27 members of the EU. Any agreement between the U.K. and the EU must have a qualified majority within the European Council and pass the European Parliament to come into effect. If a mixed agreement is in place then the agreement may take longer. In short, the U.K.’s exit from the EU will be a long-drawn affair.
Repealing the European Communities Act 1972
Another way the U.K. could depart from the EU is by repealing the European Communities Act of 1972. The Act, which gives EU law supremacy over domestic law, allowed the U.K. to join the EEC in 1973. By unilaterally repealing this Act, the U.K. Parliament could remove the supremacy of EU law from the U.K. and thereby consider itself out of the Union.
The issue with unilateral action is that it could potentially harm the U.K.’s chances of working with the EU on a consensus-based agreement. From a foreign policy standpoint, the U.K. stands to lose if it unilaterally repeals or starts modifying the European Communities Act while it’s negotiating new agreements with the EU.
U.K.
The referendum has thrown up another pertinent question. According to polling data, 62 per cent of the voters in Scotland and 55.8 per cent of the voters in Northern Ireland elected to remain. Prime Minister David Cameron announced that the governments of all the four nations would decide on how to proceed further. With voters in these two countries within the United Kingdom wishing to remain with the European Union, it would leave lawmakers at Westminster wondering how to proceed with leaving the EU. Scottish National Party (SNP) leaders have stated that if Scotland votes to Remain but the U.K. votes to leave, it could demand another Scottish referendum. This may not be done immediately as the SNP lacks a majority in the Scottish Parliament but this vote could pave way for it.
While Mr. Cameron announced that he will not be leading the negotiations with the EU and will leave that to the next Prime Minister, he also suggested he will allow that individual to decide when to invoke the Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. This would mean official negotiations would begin only after October. The U.K. may apply to join the EU at another point in time as there is no provision within the treaty that states that it cannot.
How the EU proceeds to deal with the U.K. exit will be interesting to watch as it is facing multiple crises already, and this vote could open the door to more referendums.
