The United States and Iran are drafting elements of a nuclear deal that commits Tehran to a 40-per-cent cut in the number of machines it could use to make an atomic bomb, officials told The Associated Press on Thursday. In return, the Iranians would get quick relief from some crippling economic sanctions and a partial lift of a U.N. embargo on conventional arms.
Agreement on Iran’s uranium enrichment programme could signal a breakthrough for a larger deal aimed at containing the Islamic Republic’s nuclear activities.
The sides are racing to meet a March 31 deadline for a framework pact and a full agreement by the end of June even as the U.S. Congress keeps up pressure on the administration to avoid any agreement leaving Iran with an avenue to become a nuclear power.
Officials said the tentative deal imposes at least a decade of new limits on the number of centrifuges Iran can operate to enrich uranium, a process that can lead to nuclear weapons-grade material. The sides are zeroing in on a cap of 6,000 centrifuges, officials said, down from the 6,500 they spoke of in recent weeks.
That’s also fewer than the 10,000 such machines Tehran now runs, yet substantially more than the 500 to 1,500 that Washington originally wanted as a ceiling. Only a year ago, U.S. officials floated 4,000 as a possible compromise.
But U.S. officials insist the focus on centrifuge numbers alone misses the point. Combined with other restrictions on enrichment levels and the types of centrifuges Iran can use, Washington believes it can extend the time Tehran would need to produce a nuclear weapon to at least a year.
Right now, >Iran would require only two to three months to amass enough material to make a bomb .
President Barack Obama appealed directly to Iranian citizens in a message commemorating Nowruz, the Persian New Year.
“Our negotiations have made progress, but gaps remain,” Mr. Obama said on Thursday in a video message posted online.
“If Iran’s leaders can agree to a reasonable deal, it can lead to a better path the path of greater opportunities for the Iranian people,” he said.
The pressure in Congress on the administration over Iran remained intense, with the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee saying he would move ahead with legislation giving lawmakers a say over any nuclear deal. And 360 House Republicans and Democrats -- more than enough to override any presidential veto -- sent a letter to Mr. Obama saying if an agreement is reached, Congress will decide on easing sanctions it has imposed.
“Congress must be convinced that its terms foreclose any pathway to a bomb, and only then will Congress be able to consider permanent sanctions relief,” the lawmakers wrote.
Rep. Eliot Engel of New York, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told administration officials at a hearing on Thursday that Congress cannot be marginalised and “any attempts to sidestep Congress will be resisted on both sides of the aisle.”
The one-year breakout time has become a point the Obama administration is reluctant to cross in the set of highly technical talks, and that bare minimum would be maintained for 10 years as part of the draft deal. After that, the restrictions would be slowly eased. The total length of the deal would be at least 15 years, possibly 20.
As part of the agreement, punitive U.S. economic sanctions would be phased out over time. President Barack Obama has the authority to eliminate some measures immediately, and others would be suspended as Iran confirms its compliance over time. Some sanctions would be held to the later years of the deal, while a last set would require a highly skeptical U.S. Congress to change laws.
Although time periods, centrifuge caps and sanctions schedules have previously been discussed, most of the specifics divulged by the officials were new. They demanded anonymity because they weren’t authorised to speak publicly on the confidential talks.
Iran insists its programme is solely for peaceful energy, medical and research purposes, though many governments believe it has nuclear weapons ambitions.
It’s unclear how complete the draft is. Iran’s deeply buried underground enrichment plant remains a problem, officials said, with Washington demanding the facility be repurposed and Tehran insisting it be able to run hundreds of centrifuges there. Iran says it wants to use the machines for scientific research; the Americans fear they could be quickly retooled for enrichment.
A planned heavy water reactor will be re-engineered to produce much less plutonium than originally envisioned, relieving concerns that it could be an alternative pathway to a bomb.
Any March framework agreement is unlikely to constrain Iran’s missile programme, which the United States believes may ultimately be aimed at creating delivery systems for nuclear warheads. Diplomats say that as the talks move to a deadline, the Iranians continue to insist that missile curbs are not up for discussion.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met for the fourth straight day Thursday.
“We are pushing some tough issues,” Kerry said after a morning meeting. “But we made progress.”
The talks formally remain between the Iran and six powers, but Kerry and Zarif have done most of the heavy lifting in recent months.
If a deal is reached, officials say various layers of U.N. sanctions on Iran will be eased. That would include parts of the U.N. arms embargo that Russia and China want to ease within weeks of a full accord. Some restrictions would stay in place, however, such as on the transfer of missile technology.
After the deal expires, Iran could theoretically ramp up enrichment to whatever level or volume it wants.
Iran already can produce the equivalent of one weapon’s worth of enriched uranium with the centrifuges it now runs. However, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, spoke of eventually operating enough centrifuges to produce what 190,000 of its current models churn out.
Key issues in Iran nuclear talks with world powers
>BREAK-OUT TIME
 | The goal of the negotiations is an arrangement whereby Iran would need at least one year to produce enough fissile material -- high enriched uranium or plutonium -- for a single atomic weapon, should Tehran choose to produce one. That is known as the “break-out” time. |
DURATION OF DEALU.S. President Barack Obama has said that Iran will need to accept limits on its nuclear programme for at least 10 years. Recently Iran had wanted eight years and the U.S. 20 years. They have compromised at 10 years. | |
URANIUM ENRICHMENT
| Originally Iran wanted to maintain all of its uranium enrichment centrifuges, machines that purify uranium for use as fuel in power plants or, if very highly enriched, in weapons. That was around 10,000 operational out of nearly 20,000. The U.S. and others wanted to reduce that number to several hundred. Now, Iran wants to keep around 9,000 while western official are talking 6,000. |
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENTIran’s desire to pursue > research and development into advanced centrifuges is one of the biggest sticking points in the talks. Western powers are extremely uncomfortable with allowing Tehran to continue developing more efficient centrifuges that would shorten the break-out time. | |
PLUTONIUM
| Western powers had originally wanted Iran to dismantle a heavy-water reactor at Arak that could yield significant quantities of plutonium. Tehran refused to do so but has agreed to the idea of converting or operating it in a way that ensures the amount of plutonium it could yield would be insignificant. Iran has also agreed not to pursue technology for extracting plutonium from spent fuel. |
FORDOWAn underground enrichment plant that Iranian officials say they have agreed to convert into an R&D plant. Western officials would like this site converted into something that has nothing to do with enrichment. | |
STOCKPILES
| Iran's uranium stockpiles are an important issue because the less uranium Tehran has on hand, the more centrifuges it can maintain. Originally, Iran wanted to enrich 2.5 tonnes per year, but could settle at half a tonne. Western officials say that allowing Iran to produce more than 250 kg a year would be problematic. The remainder would be relocated to Russia or another country |
SANCTIONSThe speed of lifting sanctions is another major sticking point in the talks. Iran wants all U.S, European Union and United Nations sanctions lifted immediately. U.S. says sanctions should be lifted gradually. This has become a sensitive issue in the U.S., as Republicans controlling both houses of Congress have threatened to impose new U.S. sanctions on Tehran against the advice of Obama. Obama has said he would veto any new sanctions steps for fear they would torpedo the delicate negotiations. Obama can use executive authority to suspend sanctions but many U.S. measures can only be terminated by Congress. | |
POSSIBLE MILITARY DIMENSIONS
| The Western powers say it is vital that Iran fully cooperate with a U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) investigation into past nuclear activities that could be related to making weapons. Iran has said these “possible military dimensions” (PMD) are an issue it will not budge on. |
MONITORINGAny deal would require a vigorous monitoring framework to ensure Iranian compliance. Iranian officials say they reject Western demands unlimited inspection powers for the IAEA. | |
