U.S. President Donald Trump’s New Year tweet. accusing Pakistan of lies and deceit. has left policymakers here perplexed. Many say they saw it coming but not this early.
Pakistani government and the military had a meeting of the National Security Committee on Tuesday to discuss the strategy to be followed. This was followed by a special Cabinet meeting on Wednesday.
The reaction thus far has been one of caution. The reason is that a complete disconnect with the U.S. would place more financial burden on an already-fragile Pakistani economy. The U.S. has cut its aid over the years but its influence on international institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank can deny Pakistan the financial breather it needs desperately.
Cautious reaction
Across the political divide, every party leader has condemned Mr. Trump’s stance but hasn’t been able to provide any solution. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif took on the former military ruler Gen. Pervez Musharraf on Tuesday, accusing him of surrendering before the U.S. after 9/11. However, even he stopped short of spelling out a strategy for improvement in the troubled relationship.
It was in 2016 that Mr. Sharif had asked former military chief Gen. Raheel Sharif to take steps to rein in the Haqqani network, failing which, he said, the U.S. may impose sanctions. A close aide of Mr. Sharif claimed that the Army chief agreed to do so but did not implement the directive.
The story, published in TheDawn newspaper, was called ‘Dawn Leaks’. The powerful military accused the government of leaking a ‘national secret’. Two Ministers had to resign while a senior bureaucrat was fired.
Fast forward to 2018. A government source claims that a message on the possible cutting of U.S. aid was conveyed to Pakistan two weeks back.
The message, the source says, also warned Islamabad that it could be stripped of its status of a non-NATO ally and would face sanctions if its support for the Haqqani network continues.
Former General Talat Masood said Pakistan has to be more transparent about the presence of the Haqqani network.
“Irrespective of the U.S. pressure, we need to disallow Haqqani network to operate from our soil. This policy was made to curtail Indian influence in Afghanistan and it didn’t work. Pakistan has to move towards shedding its policy of supporting militant groups as an instrument of foreign policy. This is not a viable option any more,” he said.
‘Pak. a scapegoat’
Gen. Masood also pointed out that the hardening U.S. policy towards Pakistan is an attempt to scapegoat Pakistan for the its own failures in Afghanistan. “U.S. foreign policy is now at the hands of retired generals who would want a scapegoat. U.S. has the ability to greatly harm any country and that’s where we have to be very cautious. CIA can launch any covert operations in our soil. It can also target China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Above all it wants to appease India to support it against China. So we have a tricky situation on our hands,” he said.
On the possibility of the cutting of U.S. aid, Gen Masood believes that it had already been cut to minimal and may not be effective.
Journalist and author Zahid Hussain sees the Trump salvo as the culmination of the U.S. pressure for months but believes that the situation can be revived as happened in 2011.
“This is typical Trump policy of blowing hot and cold. Complete breakdown won’t happen. Both countries have also transformed their relationship into a transactional one... Both Pakistan and the U.S. have to come again on the negotiating table. I expect some negotiations resuming,” he said.
Analysts also believe that the issue of Hafiz Saeed is not a priority for the U.S. right now and that it is more interested in pressurising Pakistan to stop supporting the Haqqani network.
However, as a precaution, the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan on Monday issued a special regulatory order to bar collection of funds by the Hafiz Saeed’s charities Jamaat-ud-Dawah and Falah-e-Insaaniyat.
The Election Commission of Pakistan has already refused to register the Saeed-backed Milli Muslim League, curtailing his efforts to enter into the political mainstream.
