Husain Haqqani is Director for South and Central Asia at the Hudson Institute and author of several acclaimed books on South Asia. A former Ambassador of Pakistan to the U.S., Mr. Haqqani has been leading the argument, “to win Afghanistan, get tough on Pakistan,” in the American capital. President Donald Trump’s new South Asia policy signals a paradigm shift, Mr. Haqqani says.
Excerpts:
How is this South Asia policy different?
President Trump has made American policy towards South Asia unambiguous. He said America trusts India, distrusts Pakistan, and wants America to win in Afghanistan, rather than withdraw. Question now is, how does Pakistan respond. Until now, U.S. pressured Pakistan, occasionally bullied Pakistan, but has never told Pakistan that it could start looking at Pakistan as an adversary. Here Trump is holding out the prospect of treating Pakistan as an enemy. This is the first time that instead of a carrot-based approach, there is a more stick-based approach. He is also scaring Pakistan with the prospect of more Indian involvement in Afghanistan. He is telling Pakistan that if you don't support us succeed in Afghanistan, we will make your nightmare come true.
So, from carrot and stick, it is now stick and carrot?
It is primarily a stick policy, with the promise of carrot if they change their behaviour.
Is this a dramatic change — as President Trump has said it is?
It is a paradigm shift in U.S. policy towards South Asia. Historically, U.S. has looked upon Pakistan as an ally and India as a friend, not an ally. Now, it is looking at India as an ally and Pakistan as the problem.
How do you think Pakistan will respond?
Initial response will be one of defiance. There will be street protests, there will be statements from politicians, etc. But at some point, Pakistan policymakers will have to assess their interests and redefine it. Nations redefine their interests. Pakistan has to do this. How will it do this, is the question. It will not be an easy ride for Pakistan or the U.S. for that matter.
Will it be an easy ride for India?
For India also. For all three, it’s going to be a difficult ride. There is a new recalibration of the balance in South Asia, with all different reactions and options.
How does Trump’s South Policy fit with his policies on Iran, Russia, China etc.? How is America going to meet its operational objectives in Afghanistan?
He will change rules of engagement in Afghanistan. More special operations, more drones, a change from the previous format of responding to aggression to more aggressive pursuit of terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
