Diplomatic speculation is heightening, barely hours before the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague issues a crucial order on the South China Sea dispute between Philippines and China. The order, expected to be announced on Tuesday, is likely to be a catalyst for diplomatic manoeuvres in South and Southeast Asia, experts said.
“The Chinese have more or less reconciled to the fact that the award will go against their claim… and that is why they have been campaigning over the last few weeks with dozens of countries,” said Ranjit Kalha, former Secretary at the Ministry of External Affairs. Diplomats believe that China will refer to past precedents to neglect the verdict if it turns out to be adverse. Many also say it will spur ASEAN members to build a special “code of conduct”.
