Donald Trump’s surprise election as the 45th United States President has Pakistanis wary that he may accelerate what they see as a shift in American policy to favour arch-foe India in the long rivalry between the nuclear-armed neighbours, say analysts.
Historical allies in the region, Islamabad and Washington have seen relations sour over U.S. accusations that Pakistan shelters Islamist militants, a charge Pakistan denies. They hit new lows in May when a U.S. drone killed the leader of the Afghan Taliban movement on Pakistani territory.
At the same time, Pakistan’s ties with India also deteriorated, with India saying Pakistan based militants killed 19 of its soldiers in a September attack on the Uri Army base in the disputed Kashmir region.
Tilt towards India unmistakable
To many Pakistanis, Mr. Trump’s anti-Muslim rhetoric — he once proposed banning Muslims entering the US — and business ties with India are signs that his administration could shift further toward New Delhi.
“America will not abandon Pakistan, but definitely, Trump will be a tougher President than Hillary Clinton for Pakistan,” said Hasan Askari Rizvi, Lahore based foreign policy analyst. “I think India will have a better and smoother interaction compared to Pakistan.”
Mr. Trump has yet to lay out a detailed policy for South Asia, although he recently offered to mediate between India and Pakistan in their dispute over the divided territory of Kashmir.
No policy change: diplomat
A U.S. diplomat in Pakistan has sought to assure the country that Mr. Trump’s election did not signal a drastic policy change.
“Our foreign policy is based on national interest and they don't change when the government changes,” Grace Shelton, U.S. Consul General in Karachi, told Geo News television.
Sharif greets Trump
Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has congratulated Mr. Trump. “Your election is indeed the triumph of the American people and their enduring faith in the ideals of democracy, freedom, human rights and free enterprise,” he said in a statement.
Still, the uncertainty of a Trump presidency has many Pakistanis on the edge, even if the country has leaned towards China in recent years for investment and diplomatic support.
“Trump is a bit of a wild card,” said Sherry Rehman, a Pakistani senator and former ambassador to the US.
“Pakistan obviously cannot rule out engaging with whomever America elects, but his anti-Muslim rhetoric may cast a shadow on relations in times of uncertainty.”
U.S. troops in Afghanistan
Mr. Trump told Fox News in May that he would favour keeping nearly 10,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan “because it’s adjacent and right next to Pakistan which has nuclear weapons.”
Mr. Trump will have to decide whether to maintain the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan or change the scope of the mission, 15 years after a U.S.-led campaign toppled the hardline Islamist Taliban government.
The U.S. has spent some $115 billion in aid for Afghanistan since 2002, but the country is still caught in conflict, with a third of the country out of government control and thousands of Afghan civilians, soldiers and police dying every year.
Afghan officials have voiced concern that the conflict is being forgotten in Washington, and warned privately that the West will pay a huge price if that continues.
“The people of Afghanistan are tired of war. We want [Mr. Trump] to invest heavily in bringing peace to war-torn Afghanistan and stabilize our region,” said Umer Daudzai, former Afghan Minister of Interior.
Mounting gains by Taliban
Mr. Obama's original aim of pulling out of Afghanistan entirely has been put on hold in the face of mounting gains by Taliban militants, with U.S. air power and special forces still regularly involved in combat.
As recently as last week, two U.S. Green Berets were killed near the northern city of Kunduz.
Although Afghan security forces have been fighting largely alone since the end of the main NATO-led combat mission in 2014, their performance has been patchy and they continue to rely heavily on U.S. air power.
The Taliban on Wednesday urged Mr. Trump to withdraw all U.S. troops.
“They should not cause damage to their economy and their military in this failed war,” Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said of the American government in a statement.
