The nuclear deal between Iran and world powers led by the U.S. will not encourage other countries in the region to pursue nuclear ambitions, according to experts at the Brookings Institution who interviewed serving officials in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey and Egypt.
Many critics of the deal, which remains highly contested six months after it kicked in, have argued that the deal would encourage other countries in the region to develop their own nuclear capabilities.
Closer integration of IranThe study done by Brookings experts Robert Einhorn and Richard Nephew — both worked in the U.S government earlier — concludes that closer integration of Iran into the world economy would incentivise its continued good behaviour even after the 15-year cut-off point when most restrictions placed by the deal will cease.
Saudi Arabia may be desirous of pursuing an ambitious nuclear programme, but it has no capability to do that, and the widely believed notion that there is a pact between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia for nuclear cooperation may be misplaced, the experts found.
“Given the Kingdom’s difficulty in developing an indigenous nuclear weapons capability, speculation has turned to the possibility of the Kingdom receiving support from a foreign power, usually Pakistan, which received generous financial support from Saudi Arabia in acquiring its own nuclear arsenal. … [However] senior Saudis and Pakistanis deny such an understanding exists. If it does exist, it was probably a vague, unwritten assurance long ago between a Pakistani leader and Saudi king… In any event, the Saudis would find it hard to rely on such an assurance now, especially in the wake of Islamabad’s rejection of the Saudi request to take part in the Yemen campaign,” the study said.
Participating in a discussion on the study, Yousef Al Otiaba, UAE Ambassador to the U.S., said Iran’s moderate face was visible only in the nuclear deal even as it continued hostile policies towards neighbours. “If this deal is implemented as it is written, it will give everyone the comfort, and there will be less worry about what will happen at the end of 15 years,” he said, adding that if the international community were lenient because of fear that Iran may walk out of the deal otherwise, the problem could be compounded.
