From a U.S. and British perspective, the most pressing issue in Iraq is defeating the Islamic State (IS). For Iraqi citizens, however, it is the ongoing abject failure of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and his government to provide basic public services, create jobs, and root out corruption.
Into this gap between external strategic perception and domestic political reality has stepped Muqtada al-Sadr, the charismatic Shia cleric and former Mahdi army leader whose virulent sectarianism and violent resistance to the U.S. occupation earned him notoriety in the West and hero status among many Iraqi Shias between 2004 and 2008.
The street protest movement that has rocked Baghdad in recent weeks, culminating in the weekend invasion of the Green Zone, is largely directed by Mr. Sadr, who has moved his centre of operations from the holy city of Najaf to the capital.
No longer the sectarian firebrand and anti-U.S. insurgent, Mr. Sadr has recast himself as a man of all the people, a fervent Iraqi nationalist and federalist who upholds the democratic process by non-violent means. The Mahdi army militia was disbanded in 2008. In the 2014 elections, the Sadrist al-Ahrar bloc won 34 seats in Parliament. In short, Mr. Sadr has gone legit.
Far from seeking Mr. Abadi’s overthrow, Mr. Sadr says he wants to help him implement reforms, in particular to end the discredited quota system introduced by Washington after the 2003 invasion. Quotas were intended to ensure Iraq’s main ethno-religious constituencies — Shias, Sunnis and Kurds — shared power, but they have been widely abused to enrich office-holders and extend party political patronage.
Mr. Abadi, though personally popular, is widely seen as weak.
Washington and its western allies worry that the unrest is undermining their key aim of defeating IS. Army units reportedly recalled to help with security in Baghdad had been intended for use in the expected campaign to expel the IS from Mosul, Iraq’s second city.
War on ISMr. Sadr has a dog in the IS fight, too. His so-called Peace Companies, armed militia that are the successors to the Mahdi army, have fought against the IS alongside the government-sanctioned, Shia-centric Popular Mobilisation Forces. These forces, more than the Iraqi army, are praised for recent successes against the jihadists.
Mr. Sadr’s re-emergence as a powerful national leader may have some advantages for Washington. His newly minted nationalist stance makes him a potential bulwark against Tehran’s influence, which has become all-pervasive since the U.S. left. There are sharp tensions between Mr. Sadr and rival Shia factions, and Sadrist militia have clashed with the Iranian-backed Hashd.
The cleric enjoys the sort of grassroots support that few if any other Iraqi politicians currently command. This does not include the Sunni minority, whose rejection of any Shia-dominated central authority looks likely to continue.
If Mr. Abadi is deposed, however, they and Washington may have little choice but to deal with a former hate figure once dubbed the “most dangerous man in Iraq”. — © Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2016
