China will press for American support for its plan to sell two nuclear power reactors to Pakistan, in Monday's “sub-dialogue on South Asia” with United States officials in Beijing.
The U.S., diplomats and analysts say, is likely to indicate it will not obstruct the controversial deal. In return, the U.S. will ask for greater Chinese support for sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme.
But both governments have, so far, remained tight-lipped on the agenda for Monday's talks between U.S. Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs Robert Blake and Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister Wang Guangya.
The recently initiated dialogue on South Asia takes place against a backdrop of rising concerns in India over the Barack Obama administration appearing to encourage China to play a greater role in the region.
Following Mr. Obama's visit to Beijing in November, the U.S. and China pledged to “to strengthen communication, dialogue and cooperation on issues related to South Asia,” in a joint statement which angered Indian officials.
Now, Indian officials are again likely to be left concerned, with the U.S. appearing to take a soft line on China's nuclear engagement with Pakistan.
According to many analysts, China's plan to sell two power reactors goes against internationally mandated guidelines on the transfer of nuclear equipment, and will require China to seek special exemption from the Nuclear Suppliers' Group. China has been a member of the NSG since 2004.
Following the India-U.S. civilian nuclear agreement, to which the NSG granted special exemption, Pakistan has been increasingly pressing for a similar deal, both with the U.S. and China.
In March, Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi reiterated Pakistan's desire for a civilian nuclear agreement in talks in Washington. While the U.S. has ruled out granting a similar deal, reports have suggested the U.S. looked to placate Pakistani officials by granting a tacit approval to its nuclear co-operation with China.
Another consideration for Washington is securing Chinese support on imposing sanctions on Iran. “The United States may also tolerate China's new nuclear deal with Pakistan because Obama wants China's support for United Nations Security Council sanctions against Iran this spring,” analyst Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace wrote earlier this week.
The situation in Afghanistan will also figure on top of the agenda in Monday's talks, said Ma Jiali, a South Asia expert at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. “Both China and the U.S. are concerned about the security situation in Afghanistan,” he said. “The U.S. needs China's understanding and support to bring stability.”
Pakistan will not be against India, if and only if India treats its relations well and builds up confidence with them. We need to show that we care about Pakistan, and really are up for cooperation; either by sending aids, or something. But actually doing something. China seeks an alliance with Pakistan by giving it aid and supporting its clauses. If Pakistan does ally with China, which is very likely as we oppose nearly everything that it wants and China supports nearly everything it wants; just like Rob says, we're in deep, deep trouble. China basically trying to destabilise support away from us by aiding Pakistan's infrastructure as well as other countries like Sri Lanka. The first and foremost priority for us is to build an alliance with Pakistan and the rest of South Asia, lest we fall for the Chinese tricks.
China has to be treated the way they treat us. We have to openly tell China that any dealing that is detrimental to India will affect its bilateral relation including trade.
It appears that India must worry more about America under Obama rather than China or Pakistan.
American approach to ensure her security, bypasses all security concerns of India. As far as South East Asia is concerned, India is left with no alternatives, other than to stay put to American moves to rope in China as well in her effort to empower Pakistan. India, caught up in the artful tactics, suffers from China syndrome that has not reciprocated to India's ovetures for peace and to resolve all bilatral issues. Obama's administration has so far given India nothing but talks that is far short of credibility and contraditions. Between China and America, India remains a country, stratagically vulnerable, with an advesary made stronger by modern weapons conventional and unconventional. The time that America leaves Afganistan, India will have to confront an equal or more than equeal Pakistan with modern weapons that are directed at India on one side and China on the other. India, despite American preventive actions must vigorously extend her influence in Afganistan, taking the advantage of the Afgan and her peoples' preferences as a counter measure to remain a power to reckon with.
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