Republican Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election will deepen Asian allies’ anxiety about Washington’s commitment to post-war security arrangements in the face of a risingChina and volatile North Korea, and could bolster calls from conservatives in Tokyo for a more robust defence policy.
Mr. Trump's “America First” rhetoric and calls for allies to pay more of the cost for U.S. troops in the region or face their possible withdrawal have worried officials in some Asian capitals. So has his opposition to a 12-nation pan-Pacific trade pact that was a linchpin of Washington's “pivot” to the region.
“We should expect dramatic changes in the security environment,” said South Korea’s ruling Saenuri Party floor leader Chung Jin-suk in parliament on Wednesday.
But he added: “In any case, there should not be any wavering in the Korea-U.S. military alliance, which has been the foundation of prosperity of this country.”
A Japanese government official, speaking before Mr. Trump clinched the election, urged the new president to send a reassuring message. “The new president-elect should as soon as possible issue a statement reassuring the rest of the world that the strong commitment of the United States to its allies ... remains strong and reliable,” said the official, who declined to be identified.
“We are certainly concerned about the comments (Trump) has made to date about the alliance and the U.S. role in the Pacific, particularly Japan,” the Japanese official said, although he added Trump's policies might not match his rhetoric.
Trump has made several comments that disturbed Washington’s Asian allies, from insisting they must foot more of the two-way defence bill to suggesting it might be alright for Tokyo and Seoul develop nuclear arms capability.
In an article criticising U.S. President Barack Obama's “pivot” to Asia as “talking loudly but carrying a small stick” two Trump advisors said he would beef up the U.S. Navy while asserting it was “only fair” that Seoul and Tokyo pay more for defence.
“There is no question of Mr. Trump’s commitment to America’s Asian alliances as bedrocks of stability in the region,” wrote University of California professor Peter Navarro and Alexander Gray, a former advisor to U.S. politician Randy Forbes, in the article, which appeared in the November 7 edition of Foreign Policy magazine.
The article also criticised the Obama administration for failing to halt China's aggressive maritime activities in the East and South China Seas, where Beijing has territorial rows with several countries in the region.
Mr. Trump has called for more ships for the U.S. Navy. The “mere initiation of the Trump naval programme will reassure our allies that the United States remains committed in the long term to its traditional role as guarantor of the liberal order in Asia", the authors said.
Mr. Trump’s approach to the North Asia security alliances could spark calls in Japan for a more independent security stance, although serious talk of acquiring nuclear weapons is unlikely to emerge in the only nation to suffer atomic bombings.
“I think they will have more legitimacy,” said a Japanese diplomat, referring to those seeking a more robust security stance. “But the Japanese public is reluctant to go in that direction and we don't have the capacity in terms of budget or (military) personnel.”
