A pregnant silence enveloped Paris on Saturday, a day of quiet before the French people vote on Sunday in the first round of the presidential election. The city appeared to be quietly recovering from Thursday night’s gun battle on Champs Elysees and preparing for the poll. Two of the 11 candidates will make it to the May 7 run-off.
The mood of the country with its 10% unemployment rate, disillusionment with the political class and multiple terrorist attacks, coupled with the number of viable candidates, has kept the first round vote significantly more open than it has been in recent history.
Francois Hollande, the sitting President, facing single digit approval ratings, decided late last year not to run for another term. . By then, it was too late for any candidate from Mr. Hollande’s Socialist party to consolidate the left’s support.
Having emerged the winner in the Socialists’ primary in January, Benoit Hamon was unable to capture a significant chunk of the left’s imagination. The left was split, with those towards the centre moving towards a new face — 39-year old centrist Emmanuel Macron — some staying with Mr. Hamon, and the far left vote moving towards their favoured candidate, Jean-Luc Melenchon. Mr. Hamon now trails far behind the others — polling a mere 8%. As Mr. Hamon fought the Socialists primaries earlier this year, a scandal was unfolding in the party of the right – Les Republicains, whose candidate, Francois Fillon, was accused of paying his wife and children money for work they had not done.
But that was at the start of the year. Mr. Fillon seems to have recovered ground. He is currently tied for third spot with Mr. Melenchon. Any marginal impact on Thursday night’s attack in Paris is likely to benefit Mr. Fillon rather than Ms. Le Pen. “The right... they don’t like the economic programme of Le Pen,” Bernard Cautres, a political scientist at Science Po’s Cevipof centre, told The Hindu. Some of Ms. Le Pen’s supporters are “quasi-left” in terms of their economics, he added.
Just behind Mr. Fillon, polling at about 19%, is Mr. Melenchon, a candidate who has made significant gains recently. With his use of technology and media and his impassioned references to rebellion, even revolution, Mr. Melenchon appears to be striking a chord with a growing number of the left in the run-up to Sunday.
Four-way race
This leaves four serious contenders in the race — Mr. Macron, Ms. Le Pen, Mr. Fillon and Mr. Melenchon. Mr. Macron, who is perceived as a “bit of left, and a bit of right”, is, according to polls, set to win the run-off. Then why the uncertainty?
Firstly, Mr. Macron is a new face. While it is true that he served as former Economy Minister under Mr. Hollande, and is a product of the elite French schooling system, Mr Macron is essentially an outsider — a former investment banker. His youth and the fact that he is supported by a “movement”, En Marche and not an established political party could possibly work against him. His social and economic policies are liberal, and he is committed to a strong European Union — policies that find appeal in the left and the right.
Secondly, in a situation where one in three voters are undecided, having a stable support base could go a long way. Ms. Le Pen, the far-right candidate whose party, the National Front (FN), is associated with xenophobia and nationalism, is polling 22.5%, according to the Ipsos-Cevipof-Le Monde poll, just half a percentage point behind Mr. Macron. Her support base is more stable and tested than Mr. Macron’s. It is drawn mostly from small towns and rural areas, but has grown to include more youth, industrial workers, and the right.
Mr. Fillon, who has a strong Catholic support base and is socially conservative, may also enjoy a more stable support base than Mr. Macron. Some of the right have returned to Mr. Fillon, being wary of the protectionism that underlies Ms. Le Pen’s economic policies.
Hidden votes
Another factor that may help Ms. Le Pen is the “hidden vote” — voters who are socially constrained not to admit they will vote for her but could end up supporting her at the ballot box.
A third complicating factor is what is known in France as the “vote utile” or the strategic vote. French electoral wisdom recommends that you “vote with your heart in the first round and vote with your mind in the second round” - an encouragement to vote strategically in the second round. But this year, perhaps too much is at stake for voters to put off strategic voting for the second round. Many of the left who know that Mr. Hamon is unlikely to make it past the first round are likely to cast a strategic vote for Mr. Macron in order to avoid Ms. Le Pen advancing to the second round, Mr. Cautres of Science Po, said. Strategic voting is likely to help Mr. Macron and Mr. Fillon.
If one thing is clear about Sunday’s elections, it is that the winners are far from clear.
