The U.S Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) has obtained warrant to examine thousands of newly discovered e-mails that it said were “pertinent” to an earlier investigation against Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.
The contents and the nature of the e-mails remain unclear, but Ms. Clinton’s momentum appears to have been broken in the last week of campaigning, by the relentless news coverage of the controversy and the announcement of an average increase of 22 per cent in premiums for Obamacare health insurance last week.
Till then, Trump was the focus
Until these two issues surfaced, the media focus was on serial allegations of sexual assault against her Republican opponent, Donald Trump. Polling is on next Tuesday, November 8.
Nationally, the presidential race has tightened further over the weekend – with Ms. Clinton now leading by 2.9 percentage points in an average of opinion polls by RealClear Politics; in the CNN average of five latest national polls, she is ahead by five points. The latest electoral college votes estimation by RC Politics has 263 in Ms. Clinton’s kitty compared to 252 three days ago; 164 for Mr. Trump, compared to 126 three days ago. It calculates that 111 electoral college votes are currently toss-up, compared to 160 three days earlier. But if all Clinton-leaning States end up with her, she will have 304 while Mr. Trump will have 234 if he gets all States that lean towards him now. To win, a candidate needs 270 votes.
In an ABC-Washington Post poll – which is the latest to come out – Ms. Clinton has a national lead of one point, which is statistically, a tie.
e-mail boost to Trump
Sensing a new possibility in Ms. Clinton’s e-mail woes, Mr. Trump is scheduled to campaign in Michigan on Monday, a State in which she is leading by 6.2 points. “We are expanding the map to new areas, and we have a couple of different paths to 270 [the number of electoral college votes required to win]. I predict that we are going to win,” said Kellyanne Conway, Mr. Trump’s campaign manager said on Monday morning. “We are behind,” she had admitted last week. She said Mr. Trump does not plan to make the e-mail controversy the “centerpiece of messaging” in the last week of campaigning.
Ms. Clinton was leading by 12 points in one poll after the third presidential debate and in the aftermath of sexual assault allegations against Mr. Trump. In the crucial state of Florida with 29 electoral college votes, it is a tie if average of several polls last week is taken, but in a New York Times poll released on Sunday, Mr. Trump has a four-point lead. In Pennsylvania, Colorado and North Carolina – some other crucial battleground states, Ms. Clinton maintains a clear lead.
He has to retain bastions, wrest States
For Mr. Trump to win, he has to win all States that are leaning Republican today and get more from Ms. Clinton’s side; for Ms. Clinton, even is she loses some that are leaning towards her now, she still will have a path to victory, if one goes by opinion polls.
The latest twists in the campaign tale can negatively impact Ms. Clinton, but they come after a large number of people have already cast their votes, under the American system of early voting. At least 21 million people have already voted, and in the key States of Florida, Colorado and Nevada, nearly a quarter of the electorate has already voted.
Historically, the Democratic-leaning voters go for early voting more than Republican-leaning ones, and the level of enthusiasm among minority voters boosts the confidence of Clinton supporters, the latest setbacks notwithstanding
