Brexit ruling brings hope, anger and uncertainty

Need for parliamentary scrutiny will test the government and parliament’s bottom line on freedom of movement and free market access

November 04, 2016 07:51 pm | Updated December 04, 2021 10:50 pm IST

If the British government had hoped to present the world with a clear vision of what was on offer in post-Brexit Britain when Prime Minister Theresa May visits India at the weekend, it will be sorely disappointed, following the historic ruling of three High Court of Justice judges that upheld the sovereignty of Parliament when it comes to triggering Brexit. The ruling raises many more questions than it answers — leaving the certainty of whether Brexit will take place, its shape and timeline hanging in the balance.

The first major hurdle will be faced in early December, when the government is expected to have its appeal heard by the Supreme Court. Ahead of the hearing the government is maintaining a confident stance, insisting that it does not expect the ruling to scupper its timetable for Brexit, which would involve triggering Article 50 in March.

May not be scuppered entirely

While Gina Miller, the investment manager who brought the legal challenge is a vocal supporter of Britain remaining in the EU, it remains unlikely that the High Court ruling will scupper Brexit entirely.

Some Conservative parliamentarians have been unhappy about the lack of parliamentary involvement in the process, but they are unlikely to take the momentous step of voting against Article 50 entirely. Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn has stressed Labour’s respect for the “decision of the British people” and is focusing on pushing for the government to swiftly present its plans to Parliament, rather than derailing Brexit itself. Even Labour parliamentarians outside Mr. Corbyn’s camp, particularly those with constituencies that voted heavily in favour of leaving the EU, may struggle with going against the perceived “will of the people.”

“Its unlikely that at the end of the day either House is going to say Article 50 should not be invoked, the question is what procedures it insists on and how much extra scrutiny it brings,” says John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde.

Conservatives not at all happy

Still, there is deep unhappiness within the Conservative party about both the slapdash treatment of Parliament. On Friday, Stephen Phillips, a Conservative MP who had voted to leave the United Kingdom resigned citing “irreconcilable policy differences” with the government.

The House of Lords will also be a major obstacle, even if it doesn’t go against constitutional protocol and block Brexit entirely.

The uncertainty over potential stumbling blocks has also raised questions about an early general election, with polls suggesting the Conservatives could increase their parliamentary majority, giving Article 50 legislation a smoother ride

Hope of a softer Brexit

The pound’s surge has suggested the market is hopeful of a softer Brexit, involving free market access, but Mr. Curtice says it’s too early to draw conclusions. “The crucial decision is where the government will draw the line on freedom of movement of people and if it is different to that of the House of Commons. It was the crucial issue for the public in the referendum and its difficult to see how the U.K. can sign up to full freedom of movement, so the question becomes what price you are willing to pay to achieve free market access.”

While the ruling leaves questions over the future of Brexit, one thing is certain: it has further exacerbated already-high social and political tensions within the U.K. While Remain campaigners celebrated the ruling and mulled options for lobbying members of Parliament, “Enemies of the People,” roared the headlines of the Daily Mail , while the Sun excoriated the efforts of the “metropolitan elite” to scupper Brexit.

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