More than 50 scientists are gathering in Hobart in Tasmania this week for a series of workshops on techniques to more accurately forecast sea ice levels in the polar region, aiming to save millions of dollars in shipping costs. They will also hope to avoid a repeat of the problems suffered by the Akademik Shokalskiy, the research vessel caught in a sudden freeze in December 2013. Rod Wooding, from the Australian Antarctic Division, said last year ships “couldn’t get anywhere near” the Australian research site, Mawson station, requiring a year’s worth of supplies and fuel to be flown in by helicopter.
“[That] is inadequate for the long-term sustainability of the station,” Wooding said. “Other national programs have had similar problems, the French in particular, the Japanese also.” Scientists were initially puzzled by the increasing sea ice around the continent, which reached record levels in September 2014, but have concluded it is “very largely driven by changes in wind,” Tony Worby, the chief executive of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, said. “Those changes of wind are driven by the depletion of ozone in the stratosphere and the increasing greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.” The El Nino phenomenon, too, “drives changes in pressure which drives changes in wind which drives changes in sea ice,” he said. Antarctica is also surrounded by ocean, leaving sea ice “completely free to expand however it wants to,” in contrast to the Arctic region, which is landlocked by Russia, Greenland and northern Canada. Australia is tendering to replace its icebreaking vessel, the 25-year-old Aurora Australis. Worby said more accurate forecasts would help to understand what level of “ice breaking capability” would be needed in the future. “It’s quite hard to forecast but whatever effort we put in to improving our ability to forecast sea ice will ultimately pay dividends in terms of savings for national programs,” he said.
— © Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2015
