In times to come, 2016 will be looked at as a watershed year in British history. In the June 23 referendum on ‘Brexit’, 52 per cent of voters chose to leave the EU. The U.K.’s decision to leave the bloc, a part of its identity for some 40 years, will have deep and far-reaching implications for many aspects of British life – from laws governing travel, environment and health to international trade and the country’s presence on the world stage.
Six months have passed since Brexit became a reality and the country is now grappling with the ‘how’: administrative, procedural and most importantly, philosophical, questions need to be answered. Prime Minister Theresa May has indicated that she will trigger Article 50, the legal instrument for leaving the EU, in March 2017, beginning an official two-year period for the U.K.’s departure from the EU.
If the first half of 2016 saw the U.K. consumed by campaigning for the referendum, the second half has seen it trying to manage the implications of its outcome. The government has been criticised for not having a coherent strategy. Administratively, too, the government is grappling with the extraordinary workload generated by Brexit and has set up two new departments to handle its fallout.
Last month, a note from the consulting firm Deloitte said an additional 30,000 civil servants would need to be hired to cope with the some 500 projects that have emerged from Brexit.
Next month, the Supreme Court will rule on whether the government needs Parliament’s approval for triggering Article 50. While it is unlikely that Parliament will go against the referendum results, a verdict against the government could put the brakes on Brexit and give Parliament a greater say in the terms of the negotiation. But these are not the only internal legal ramifications.
Last week, Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon handed Downing Street a memo, ‘Scotland’s Place in Europe’, in which she reiterated that Scotland, which voted to Stay in the EU by a large margin, would like to maintain the structure of its relationship with the bloc. In an ideal world, Ms. Sturgeon says Scotland would stay on in the EU as an independent nation, but for now proposes mechanism to find ways for Scotland to be part of the EU structures, such as the single market, within the framework of a united U.K.
Challenges before parties
This year has also been challenging for political parties in Britain, especially the Labour Party. Jeremy Corbyn survived the mass resignation of his shadow cabinet, by reclaiming the party’s leadership which was put to vote in September. However, he has been accused by party moderates of a lack of direction.
With its working class voters expecting a stand against immigration, and Mr. Corbyn unwilling to “sell out” refugees and immigrants, the party runs the risk of losing some voters — such as working class voters in the Midlands and the North of England to the UKIP, while its moderate urban MPs are threatened by the Liberal Democrats.
However, the Tories are far from immune to such considerations; the government has a thin majority of 14 MPs in Parliament. If the Brexit they deliver is soft (i.e., the U.K. ends up in a Norway type situation with the free movement of people and paying into the EU budget in exchange for being part of the single market), the Tories will alienate the Right and if it is a hard Brexit (i.e., stricter terms of separation), the more moderate conservatives will be alienated.
Regardless of what happens, there is an identity crisis that is running through the country including through its political parties, the effects of which will be seen through to 2020 when Britain goes to the polls again, and beyond.
