Monsoon depression will be uninhibited in Bay of Bengal
India Meteorological Department has forecast that heavy rains would continue into September too. It is likely to be 115 per cent of the long period average for the month, with a model error of plus or minus 15 per cent.
Consequently, the IMD has retained its earlier forecast that the rainfall for the country as a whole would be within the normal limits, at 102 per cent, plus or minus four per cent.
In a press release, the Department, however, warned that the seasonal rainfall may not be uniformly normal. The north-east is likely to end up with below normal seasonal rainfall.
The north-east region, which comprises Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and the north-eastern States, has been experiencing significantly lower rainfall right through the season. So have the eastern parts of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.
The situation is the worst in Jharkhand. The State continues to have a whopping deficiency of 45 per cent. Of the 24 districts, only one has had rainfall above the normal. Of the rest, seven continued to have a deficiency of more than 60 per cent, while 16 had deficiencies ranging from 20 per cent to 59 per cent.
Jharkhand is followed by the Gangetic West Bengal area, with a deficiency of 33 per cent. In this area, of the 13 districts, only three have got normal rainfall, the rest having deficiencies of 27 per cent to 47 per cent.
East Uttar Pradesh comes third with a deficiency of 28 per cent. It is followed by the Assam-Meghalaya region (minus 27 per cent), Bihar (minus 22 per cent), and east Madhya Pradesh (21 per cent).
According to the IMD press release, latest forecasts from various climate models from different parts of the world suggest that conditions that have been inhibiting the formation of the monsoon depression in the Bay of Bengal, which brings rains to the north-east and the eastern part of the country, are likely to be drawn out into September as well.
For the country in its entirety, on the other hand, cumulative rainfall so far is a mere two per cent below normal. The south peninsula region, comprising Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, has had the best time with a rainfall of 18 per cent above the normal.