It has often been suggested that the presence of black money in large quantities, especially in the real estate sector, prevented India from suffering many of the ill effects of the global financial crisis of 2008, but the pernicious effect of money power in elections in India has no such upside. Influencing votes in return through bribes is an old problem that the Election Commission of India (ECI) has been dealing with. The demonetisation of high denomination notes of Rs. 500 and Rs. 1,000 announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to have a big impact on the upcoming polls in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab.
“This move will have a big impact on the upcoming polls, as this is the time, just before the imposition of the model code of conduct that black money is in the distribution pipeline,” said former Chief Election Commissioner S.Y. Quraishi.
Model code of conduct“Earlier, disbursal of money to various areas used to be done closer to the date of polling, and after the imposition of the model code of conduct. When the ECI started cracking down, political parties moved up the disbursal date. This is, in fact, the time when money would be moving via for disbursal by political parties in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab,” he said.
“In my book, Elections: An Undocumented Wonder , I have detailed 40 different ways in which we found black money being disbursed in polls. I have no doubt that new ways may be found to do so again, but it may take time and these set of polls [likely in February] might escape being deluged with illicit money,” he said.
In the last set of Assembly polls concluded in May this year, Tamil Nadu alone saw over Rs. 100 crore being seized in the run-up to the polls.
The BJP’s economic affairs cell chief, Gopal Krishna Agarwal, said the move would address, at least for the duration of this set of polls, the problem of electoral financing from the supply side. “Till now, there was pressure on political parties to give an account of their spending in polls, but on circulation of this money, regulation was not effective. This will hit the supply side and will bring down the volume of spending quite significantly,” he said.
Advantage BJPFor the BJP, the additional plus point to choking the supply of money in the polls is the appropriation of the anti-corruption plank in these Assembly polls. “In one move, the Modi government has affected the circulation of notes and buying of votes,” said party national secretary Shrikant Sharma.
Dr. Trilochan Shastry of the Association of Democratic Rights (ADR), an election watchdog, said that while there would be an impact on the funds available for disbursal, it could encourage parties to promise freebies from the exchequer to balance out matters. “There is a Supreme Court directive to the Election Commission on this, but it needs to be monitored closely,” he said.
Traditional wisdom with regard to polls in India says that distribution of money and liquor on the night before polling swings the elections. With demonetisation, those taps could well run dry.
