The assembly election results declared for five states on Thursday have worked as a morale booster for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Even though it was expected to win in Assam after a three-term run by the Congress, its seeming improvement after the Bihar rout has got its opponents somewhat worried. As the ruling party in the Centre and in Maharashtra, the BJP has been more closely watched than other parties, especially in view of the Mumbai municipal elections next year.
Though the stage is far from set for the civic polls, each party wishes to leverage its gains from the state polls for a bargaining position if and when any liaison is called for. In this context, the Shiv Sena, more than any other party, is uncomfortable with the BJP’s rise in stature. An ally-turned-rival, it has lost no opportunity to criticise the BJP in the last two years, even as it shared power in the state.
For the BJP, the Assam victory comes as welcome relief. It is the saffron party’s first government in the northeast. In Kerala, it has stood second in many constituencies, and has opened its account with a single seat which it had lost by a narrow margin in the last assembly election.
Bringing positivity back
While the BJP’s performance is unlikely to impact poll dynamics in real terms, it will go some way in reinforcing positive vibes within the party. BJP MLA Atul Bhatkalkar believes it will help the party consolidate its votes among non-Maharashtrians. He said, “The party’s victory in Assam, which has a large number of Muslim voters, is reassuring. In other states too, we have done better. This will help us capture the sizeable non-Maharashtrian vote in Mumbai.”
Shiv Sena president Uddhav Thackeray has called the assembly election results a consolidation of regional votes in states where regional parties are strong. By implication, he is hoping that the Shiv Sena, being a regional party, too puts up a good show in the Mumbai election. At the same time, he has expressed hope that the BJP will address the serious issue of infiltration by Bangladeshis in Assam. Reacting to this, a BJP leader quipped, “Going by the trend, he is probably more worried about increasing infiltration in the BJP by the Shiv Sena.” In the past months, many Sena leaders have joined BJP, adding to Uddhav's discomfiture.
Disagreeing with Thackeray’s reading, NCP MLA Jitendra Awhad said, “These results will have no impact whatsoever on the Mumbai polls. Assam was an expected win for them after a 15-year reign by the Congress. In any case, BJP did not do well in Tamil Nadu or Puducherry.”
‘Cong paying the price’
Asked whether the BJP’s showing would push a nervous NCP towards a pre-poll alliance with the Congress, he said, “The Congress is our natural ally; we have the same vote banks. We don’t know whether we will tie up with the Congress for the civic polls, but there is anti-saffron resentment among Dalits, who are politically very aware, while Muslims too have realised the hazard of having their votes split between us and the Congress.”
Another NCP leader said the main loser in the elections is the Congress. “The party has been unable to use power for the betterment of the people, and is paying the price. The Congress has a tradition of doing little but riding piggyback on its allies,” he said, requesting he not be named.
Mumbai Congress president Sanjay Nirupam dismissed the results as inconsequential for Mumbai and Maharashtra. “Each state has its own demographic and political profile. It differs not just from state to state but from district to district. It has been seen that state elections have no bearing on national elections,” he said, adding, “Assam worked for BJP because of anti-incumbency and the fact that it aggressively made pacts with smaller parties. Assam was a showcase for the BJP and a safe bet.”
Defending his party’s defeat in Kerala, Nirupam said the vote swing was barely two per cent. “Keralites vote for the Congress and the Left alternately each election. It was the turn of the Left,” he said.
Asked about the Congress’ losses, another Congress leader who did not wish to be named said the party had taken a big risk by consolidating the anti-Mamata Banerjee vote and striking a deal with Left parties in West Bengal. While that calculation backfired in Bengal, the party lost in Kerala where it went solo. As it turned out, the Congress fared better in West Bengal than the Left. “It’s impossible to say for sure what will work and what will not,” he said.
The writer is a freelance journalist
Assam worked for BJP because of anti-incumbency and pacts with smaller parties in the state
Sanjay NirupamPresident, Mumbai Congress
