: The Northeast monsoon might miss its normal date of arrival – October 20 – this year, and is unlikely to set in at least till October 23, note meteorologists.
With the Southwest monsoon still lingering in some parts, the change in wind pattern that is conducive for the onset of the next monsoon has not happened yet. However, setting in of the monsoon seven days before or after October 20 is still considered ‘normal’ by the Meteorological department. The Northeast monsoon is crucial to the State as it accounts for the lion’s share of the annual rainfall.
S. Balachandran, director, Area Cyclone Warning Centre, said: “We have northwesterly or westerly winds blowing over the region now. We need the wind pattern to change to easterly winds that herald the onset of the Northeast monsoon. While easterly winds stretching up to a height of 1.5 km is needed, a fairly widespread rainfall over the State is also another requisite weather condition for the arrival of the monsoon.”
Most parts of the State are likely to experience dry weather for the next few days, except for light showers in one or two places. Chennai too will experience a day temperature of 34 degree Celsius till Wednesday. Light showers are likely during evenings in one or two places in the city due to convective activity.
A weather system brewing over the Bay of Bengal is moving in the northeast direction and this means the westerly winds will remain for a few more days, point out meteorologists.
‘Start does not matter’
However, the time of the onset of the Northeast monsoon does not matter for good or poor rainfall as an intense weather system is enough to bridge the gap. Some weather models indicate that monsoon may not arrive till October 27, note weather experts.
Y.E.A.Raj, former deputy director general of meteorology, said the monsoon is not likely set in at least for the next five days.
“We have had years when the monsoon had arrived ahead or on time but gave poor rainfall. Chennai has had copious rains even on years when the monsoon was delayed. 2011 and 2015 were the classic examples,” he said.
In the past century, about 10 per cent of the years had the monsoon setting in only in November. Last year, the monsoon arrived on October 28.
