How the Met department forecast missed it

Early predictions talked only of cloudy sky

November 04, 2017 12:42 am | Updated 12:42 am IST - CHENNAI

For Kanthimathi Selvan, a resident of Madambakkam, the rainfall on Thursday evening was a rude surprise. “There was no alert, no warning,” she said. Like many residents of the city and surrounding areas, she wonders whether the Meteorological Department erred in not predicting the intensity of the rainfall.

A bulletin issued by the Meteorological Department on Thursday afternoon (1 p.m.) had only this much to say for Chennai in the next 24 hours. “The sky condition is likely to be generally cloudy. One or two spells of rain or thundershowers [are] likely to occur.” Up to 6 cm of rain was anticipated.

But, what the city experienced some hours later was different. S. Balachandran, Director, Area Cyclone Warning Centre of the Regional Meteorological Centre, says his department revised its forecast by 8:30 p.m. According to him, the first two spells — between 3 p.m. and 4 p.m. and 5 p.m. and 7 p.m. — were “not that heavy.” But, it was only around 7.45 p.m. that the intensity heightened.

Conceding that his department did not initially forecast the intensity of rainfall but corrected it later in the day, S.B. Thampi, Deputy Director General of Meteorology, said that on Wednesday, rainfall took place over the sea. A similar pattern was expected on Thursday. But, a part of the low pressure area touched the coastal areas. Still, all the rainfall that took place yesterday was all within 5 km of the sea. “It did not rain beyond 5 km,” he asserted, adding that normally, rain spells during the northeast monsoon are more intense during the night and early hours.

0 / 0
Sign in to unlock member-only benefits!
  • Access 10 free stories every month
  • Save stories to read later
  • Access to comment on every story
  • Sign-up/manage your newsletter subscriptions with a single click
  • Get notified by email for early access to discounts & offers on our products
Sign in

Comments

Comments have to be in English, and in full sentences. They cannot be abusive or personal. Please abide by our community guidelines for posting your comments.

We have migrated to a new commenting platform. If you are already a registered user of The Hindu and logged in, you may continue to engage with our articles. If you do not have an account please register and login to post comments. Users can access their older comments by logging into their accounts on Vuukle.