By the turn of the century, Indians could experience 10 times the number of heatwaves in their lifetime than they do now, according to a new report released by the Royal Society, the United Kingdom’s national science academy, on Thursday.
Major impactBy 2090, global warming would have increased the frequency of heatwaves, which are defined as a spell of more than five consecutive days where the summer mean temperature is 5ºC higher than the historic value for the area.
Heatwaves could have major impact on human wellbeing, warns the report titled ‘Resilience to extreme weather’. Certain sections of the population will be particularly vulnerable: the elderly, children, and those whose livelihoods are heavily dependent upon natural resources.
Reduce in capacityThere are physiological limits to physical work productivity due to high heat exposure.
“It has been shown that heat stress reduces a person’s work capacity, leading to lower labour productivity and economic output”.
Between 1980 and 2004, the economic cost of extreme weather – floods, droughts and heatwaves – has been estimated to be at $1.4 trillion, says the report.
Urbanisation can also worsen heatwaves through the ‘heat island effect’ created by concrete.
The report also maps the increase in frequency of droughts and floods in parts of the world.
In India, floods will be 50 per cent more frequent by 2090, underlining the need for resilient infrastructure and policy initiatives.
“We are clearly resilience-deficit now,” said Bhaskar Vira of the University of Cambridge, who contributed to the report.
“Climate change is going to impact the world unequally – whether this involves the loss of life or national GDP.”
