The Congress seems keen on winning three of the four Rajya Sabha seats from the State in the elections on June 11. While the party currently holds only one of the four seats that are up for polls, it has the numbers in the Legislative Assembly for a second seat and could win the third seat if it manages the support of nine Independents and smaller parties.
With the strength of the Karnataka Assembly at 225 (with no vote to the nominated Anglo-Indian member), the number of votes required to win is pegged at 45. The Congress has the strength of 123 MLAs (excluding Speaker Kagodu Thimmappa), while the Bharatiya Janata Party has 44 and the Janata Dal (Secular) has the strength of 40 MLAs. The ruling party can easily ensure victory of two candidates, and will be left with surplus 33 votes. It will be short of 12 votes to get the third seat.
Chances of cross voting
As chances of cross voting from the JD(S), which faces several internal feuds, cannot be ruled out, the Congress can possibly make efforts to wean away the disgruntled elements to snatch the third seat if it can persuade Independents (9) and members of the Badavara Shramikara Raithara Congress Party (3 MLAs), Karnataka Janata Paskha (2), and Sarvodaya Karnataka Paksha and Karnataka Makkala Paksha (one MLA each) to lend their support.
Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, who cut a sorry figure in the recent byelections to the Assembly when the party high command snubbed his choice for the Hebbal constituency and preferred the former Union Railway Minister C.K. Jaffer Sharief’s grandson C.K. Abdul Rahman Sharief, who also lost, will be forced to abide by the dictates of the Central leaders as any addition to the party’s strength in the Upper House will be crucial, especially since the Narendra Modi-led NDA government still lacks a majority.
However, the number game could change if any dark horse with “deep pockets” enters the fray, according to party leaders.
In this backdrop, a large number of aspirant, including veteran leaders such as S.M. Krishna, P. Chidambaram, C.M. Ibrahim and Oscar Fernandes (all former Union Ministers) and Karnataka Mahila Congress president Laxmi R. Hebbalkar are lobbying hard, according to sources.
Infighting in Congress
Infighting in the Congress, as has been the case in the past, could make the choice of candidates difficult, and sources said most senior leaders were lobbying hard with the Congress high command.
The principal Opposition, BJP, needs just one extra vote to bag one seat and is likely to field either Union Minister M. Venkaiah Naidu or Ayanur Manjunath, both incumbent members of the Upper House. If Mr. Naidu, who was consecutively elected thrice from Karnataka, opts out, then the party may field Mr. Manjunath again, according to sources.
The JD(S) is undecided on its candidate and needs the support of five more MLAs to win a seat. But the party is reportedly inclined to back Infosys Foundation chairperson Sudha Murty as part of its bid to shed its Vokkaliga caste image.
The elections are necessitated as Mr. Naidu, Mr. Manjunath and Mr. Fernandes are scheduled to retire next month and Vijay Mallya (Independent) resigned recently.
The notification for the polls will be issued on May 24, and the elections will be held on June 11.
