The State government’s proposal for cloud seeding is gathering steam even as many meteorologists warn that the costly ‘experiment’ may end up yielding little.
While the cabinet recently approved the ₹30 crore project, the Rural Development and Panchayati Raj Department, which is overseeing the operations, is waiting for a formal order to start work. “It is up to the company (Hoysala Project Pvt. Ltd.) to determine when to start and where. But, we want this to happen during the monsoon when it is most effective,” said Prakash Kumar, the cloud seeding coordinator from RDPR.
Patchy record
Cloud seeding has had a nearly 50-year-old history in the State, with experiments first conducted by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in 1975 over Linganmakki catchment. Since then, there have been three other attempts — one during the tenure of chief minister Gundu Rao in the early ’80s; ₹6 crore was spent in 2003; and a 30-day pilot in 2012.
The result has at best been patchy, with no significant increase in rainfall. “The 2003 experiment was a moderate success. There was rain in a few places,” said S. Raja Rao, a water resources expert who had assisted the government in the project.
While there was no study on the tangible means to measure the success, including whether rainfall had increased in the area, an Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) official called the 2003 experiment a ‘flop’.
In Andhra Pradesh, a research commissioned to study weather modification between 2005 and 2009 showed that just 23% of the clouds could be seeded, out of which 75% responded to seeding. The overall increase in rainfall, however, was 12 to 19%.
Even though the process is expensive while the gains are not guaranteed, Mr. Rao insisted it is an experiment that should be carried out.
J. Srinivasan, Honorary Professor, Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the Indian Institute of Science, states that while cloud seeding is a political move and often one opted for out of desperation during the monsoon, its effectiveness has not been proven conclusively either scientifically or economically. “It is high cost and the chances of success are not high. It needs precisely the right cloud conditions and speeds... Moreover, rains are localised, and there is no guarantee that this will make its way to the reservoirs or basins to make a significant difference,” he said.
Better monitoring
This time, the State government has roped in the Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC) to monitor the ‘experiment’. “With more advanced rainfall gauges and a denser network of measuring instruments, we can get better measurements of the success of cloud seeding. Since rainfall occurs at a designated place and time, we can study the impact of this exercise,” said G.S. Srinivas Reddy, Director, KSNDMC.
