The Left Democratic Front’s prognosis about the Assembly election of an emphatic victory is founded on one key factor: the huge wave of resentment against the “corruption-tainted” Oommen Chandy government sweeping the electoral demography of Kerala.
The LDF was on the warpath through the whole of last year over issues of corruption, and what it looks forward to is a crowning moment when all that it had tried to tell the people over the past several weeks and months would gel into a huge push that will bring down crashing the UDF’s hopes of creating history with a re-run.
Speaking to reporters at Kannur, CPI(M) polit bureau member Pinarayi Vijayan said as much when he said that the LDF would secure more than 100 seats, something echoed by CPI State secretary Kanam Rajendran who predicted here on Saturday that the LDF would secure a clear majority in the polls.
The Opposition alliance’s main challenge is to wrest seats that are currently held by the UDF even as it protects what it has now. If the LDF succeeds in wresting at least 10 seats from the UDF, it will be on the path to victory, but if it fails to do so and, worse, if the UDF succeeds in the same endeavour, it would turn out to be a difficult outing for the alliance.
Tough task
Besides fighting the UDF, the LDF needs to guard against the BJP-BDJS alliance, which appears to have done some clever electoral programming, from wreaking havoc in constituencies which the LDF had won by small margins in 2011.
The alliance’s strong points are its relative cohesion as compared to 2011, its success in gaining new allies in some Muslim League citadels and in keeping its election machinery in good fighting spirit, quite unlike the last two elections.
It could mount a strong campaign on the social media and also ensure that the debate over the leadership question or its stand on liquor policy did not divert attention from its core objective of going after the UDF and the BJP-BDJS combine.
The LDF considers itself strongly placed in Kollam, Alappuzha, Thrissur, Kannur, and, to some extent, Kozhikode.
