Exit poll results that predicted a “red” wave in Ernakulam district have created a ripple in political circles with many veteran politicians refusing to buy the forecast.
Some exit polls results indicated that the Congress and the United Democratic Front (UDF) would be routed in district, long considered a Congress citadel. The 2011 Assembly elections underscored the political folklore as the Congress and its allies together won 11 out of the 14 Assembly seats in the district.
The three Left Democratic Front (LDF) representatives who went to the State Assembly from the district were S. Sarma who was elected from Vypeen, Jose Thettayil from Angamaly and Saju Paul from Perumbavoor.
The Oommen Chandy-led government had the support of Anoop Jacob (Piravom), Anwar Sadath (Aluva), K. Babu (Thripunithura), Benny Behanan (Thrikkakara), Dominic Presentation (Kochi), V.K. Ebrahim Kunju (Kalamassery), Hibi Eden (Ernakulam), Joseph Vazhackan (Muvattupuzha), T.U. Kuruvila (Kothamangalam), V.P. Sajeendran (Kunnathunadu) and V. D. Satheesan (Paravur). The district also got two Ministers, Mr. Babu and Mr. Kunju, from among the UDF legislators.
If the exit polls turned a reality in Ernakulam and some other nearby Assembly constituencies, it would call for serious introspection for the Congress, feared a senior party leader.
At the same time, Mr. Eden and Mr. Babu, the UDF candidates in Ernakulam and Thripunithura, dismissed the poll predictions as baseless and sounded confident of returning to the Assembly one more time.
Both the legislators, who completed their initial round of stock-taking, felt that they could scrape through with a reduced margin.
While Mr. Babu hoped that he would win the keenly fought contest with a minimum margin of 8,500 votes, Mr. Eden was hopeful of getting anything upward of 15,000 votes.
Stating that there has been a shift of Nair voters from the UDF camp to the Left and the BJP, C.K. Manisankar, the CPI (M) leader who coordinated the campaign, said LDF candidate M. Swaraj would emerge victorious by a margin of over 3,000 votes. The bickering in the UDF camp would also work in favour of Mr. Swaraj, he added.
A possible shift of upper caste Hindu votes in Ernakulam constituency from the UDF to the LDF would see M. Anilkumar creating history, he said.
In the past, the LDF could win only when fissures developed in the UDF camp.
It is the unpredictable nature of communal consolidation and the possible shift in votes that’s left political camps intrigued.
The LDF hopes for a clean sweep in the district with its poll manager P. Rajeev believing that there was consolidation of minority Christian and Muslims votes in favour of the Left candidates.
The LDF had put up an impressive show in 2006 by winning 10 out of 14 seats. That time, most of the constituencies in the eastern belt of the district including Kothamangalam, Piravom and Kunnathunadu went wit the Left. However, Paravur, Ernakulam, Thripunithura and Kochi stood with the UDF. “This time, there is no reason for these four constituencies stay with the UDF,” he said.
