It is awaited with bated breath and even the stock markets react to it. If you are a water consumer of any kind in India and everyone is, it is most crucial for you. The Indian Meteorological Department released its first prediction for the monsoon of 2015 rather appropriately on April 22, globally observed as Earth Day. The news unfortunately is not good. The IMD’s press release said the experimental forecast based on the coupled dynamical model forecasting system suggests that the monsoon rainfall during the 2015 monsoon season (June to September) averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 91 per cent (plus or minus 5%) of long period model average (LPMA)”.
Read here: >http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/pressrelease_nwfc.pdf
This means we will have to brace ourselves for a likely water deficient scenario from June to September this year, at least in many parts of the country where the deficit is likely to be sharper.
While the IMD predictions have not always proved accurate, preparing for the worst and hoping for the best should be the mantra. Ironically this prediction also comes at a time when there has been record breaking rains for April in places like Thiruvananthapuram and Kottayam in Kerala. Rains have been fairly widespread in many parts of South India and Bengaluru too has received a few days of showers. Unlike in the agricultural need for water, which has to be at the right time as much as in the right quantity, urban rain and water needs is not so much time dependant. Therefore the remaining April and May rains cannot be allowed to go waste and becomes important. Harvesting the rain and recharging the aquifers should be the mantra for our cities and citizens.
This is also the right time to plug leakages in water systems, put in place measures to reduce water demand, install waste-water recycling and reuse systems and in general become water literate and conservative. Every drop counts and has to be caught.
From the simplest rain barrel which catches rain to the large scale de-silting of tanks, lakes and reservoirs such as is happening in the Vaigai dam, need to be taken up at a rapid pace. The conventional response of drilling more borewells during times of drought is well past its use by date. There is no more water in the aquifers to exploit in an emergency.
A water bank will need to be created on the surface and in the aquifers to meet the needs of the coming days.
The sequence of metrological drought, hydrological drought and agricultural drought has to factor in hydro-geological drought in the Indian context considering the large scale dependence on groundwater.
While we have developed mathematical models and some skills in forecasting the monsoon the same level of skills have not developed enough in terms of responding in advance to an anticipated water crisis and harvesting the available rains of the monsoon. Monsoon 2015 is ready to teach us a lesson. Only the water wise will be prepared.
